Tonight's NHL Picks

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Tonight's NHL Picks: Decemeber 9th, 2015

Members went 2-0 last night with a winner on the Kings ML, as well as another winner on the "over 5", between the Sharks and Flames.  
We're a perfect 4-0 this week, and our 2015/16 Season record improves to 40-26 (60.6%), +10.54 Units .

 

We will be looking to exploit another low total again tonight, as we've cashed each of our last 4 "over 5" selections. Click here to sign up for our 30 day pass, to receive each and every pick we release for 30 days. Also as a bonus, any active subscribers in December will also receive our IIHF World Jr Picks this holiday season for free (+20.72 units last tournament).

 

Sending tonight's pick out to everyone today for free:

 

Bruins/Canadiens Over 5 Goals 1.69
Risk: 2 Units | Win: 1.38 Units
We cashed our fourth straight over in a row last night and will look for the fifth tonight, as the oddsmakers have put out another weak line set at just 5 goals. They listed the opening total at 5.5 goals tomorrow against Detroit, with Tokarski confirmed in goal.

 

Let's start by looking at over/under records for either club this season. The Bruins have gone 15-9 over/under this season, that's 62.5% on the over. The Canadiens are 14-8 over/under, for 63% overs. 
Now we will look at offensive numbers. The Bruins rank 3rd on offense as of today, with an average of 3.23 goals per game this season. Their power play is still ranked number one, a very impressive 30.5 PP%. To put into perspective how huge this number is, the second place power play belongs to Dallas, and they trail Boston by over 5% with a 25.6 PP%. The worst power play in the League belongs to the Flames, at 12.3%. The Habs, like Boston, are one of the highest scoring teams in the NHL, ranked 2nd overall today with 3.32 goals per game. The Canadiens have played 28 games this season, they have scored less than two goals just three times in 28 games, the latest one goal performance came against Colorado on November 14th. The Habs power play unit is among the top 5 in the league, they are 5th in the department with a 22.2 PP%. Note that the Habs are converting on 1/4 (25%) of their power play opportunities at the Bell Centre this season, while the Bruins road power play still remains solid, at 24.3% on the road. 

 

The Canadiens defense is 4th with 2.21 goals against per game, but have dropped that number to 2.40 GA/GP over their last 5 games. Boston may have the offensive power that Montreal has, but their defense doesn't compare. Boston has the 22nd overall defense with 2.85 goals against per game, and have allowed 2.80 GA/GP over their last five games, note that one of those games was a shutout against Vancouver, and that number is still high. If we remove that game from the equation and look at the other four, they've allowed 3.50 GA/GP across those four games. Mike Condon is confirmed in goal tonight, Tokarski is confirmed against Detroit tomorrow evening. Mike's win/loss record, save percentage, and goals against average continue to decline. Condon is now 9-4-3 on the season, with a 2.22 GAA and a .913 SV%. 

 

You may remember from the write-up last week, Condon has had just three of his games stay under five goals this season, two of those came in his first five games, both against Ottawa (3-1 W Oct.11th, 1-2 OT L Nov.3rd). Since those, he has had just one game end with less than five goals, a 2-1 win against Columbus (one of the worst offenses in the NHL right now) on December 1st. Mike hasn't received a shutout yet and I doubt that happens tonight against this potent Boston offense. Tukka Rask is "likely" against Montreal tonight. Rask had solid numbers last year but is not performing well so far this season. Tukka has gone 9-7-3, with a .906 SV% (31st) and a 2.72 goals against average (30th). Rask has seen just four games stay under a five goal total this season and two of those were shutouts, again I doubt Rask gets a shutout tonight against Montreal. These two clubs have already met twice this season, Montreal won both of them by a score of 4-2, sending both over the total, Boston is out for revenge tonight. The next time these clubs meet after tonight will be on New Years day at the Winter Classic. We should expect to see quite a few goals racked up tonight at the Bell Centre by these two potent offenses, to cash our fifth straight winner on a weak over 5 line.

 

 

Tonight's NHL Picks: Decemeber 5th, 2015

Hope you are enjoying your Saturday. Here's one for you for tonight. Members have two picks going, click here to sign up and instantly get tonight's other pick and all picks for 30 days. 

 

Everyone that signs up in December will also receive any IIHF World JR picks (+20.72 units last year's tournament) we release over the holidays at no additional charge.

 

Canadiens ML 1.74
Risk: 2 Units | Win: 1.48 Units

 

The Montreal Canadiens are 2nd overall in League standings as of today with 41 points in 27 games this season. The Habs lead the Atlantic Division by a landslide, as number 2 Detroit trails Montreal by nine points. Montreal has a massive goal differential of +32, to put this in perspective for you, the 2nd overall Dallas Stars have a goal differential of +23, Washington is second in that department with +25. Only five teams in the NHL have a positive double-digit goal differential this season, Calgary has the worst with an embarrassing goal differential of -29. The Canadiens have the second overall offense that has scored an average of 3.37 goals per game this season, and an impressive 3.75 goals per game when playing on the road this season. The Habs are 9-2-0-1 away from the Bell Centre this season, with a defense that has allowed just 2.33 GA/GP away from Home this season. The Canadiens rank 3rd overall on defense with 2.19 goals against per game. The Habs are without Price for approximately six weeks, Condon is expected to be in goal tonight against the Hurricanes. Condon has gone 9-3-3 this season with a .915 SV% and a 2.17 GAA.
The Hurricanes are on a three game skid, a losing streak in which they've been out-scored 13-5 by opponents (1-5 NJ, 3-4 NYR, 1-4 BUF). The Hurricanes managed to secure just two victories over their last ten games, one of those was a 4-1 win over one of the worst clubs in the League (Edmonton). The Carolina offense is among the worst in the NHL, they are 28th overall with 2.04 goals per game and have scored an average of just 1.67 goals per game over their current three game skid. The 'Canes own the second worst penalty kill in the League, at 74.6%. Note that the Hurricanes have gone 68% on the penalty kill over their last ten games. This struggling Carolina penalty kill unit must face the 4th overall power play in the NHL tonight, which belongs to Montreal at 23.1%. When it comes to the power play, the Hurricanes are once again second from the bottom, ranked 29th overall with an embarrassing 12.2 PP%. Carolina is the worst team in the NHL as of today, with a mere 20 points , an overall record of 8-13-1-1, a mere home record of 4-2-6-1, and a goal differential of -24 goals. Both Carolina goaltenders are really struggling this season, Cam Ward is probable for the 'Canes tonight. Cam is 7-8-3 on the season, with a .898 SV% (42nd) and a 2.53 GAA (27th). Eddie Lack is 1-5-1 on the season, with a .865 SV% (45th), and a 3.54 GAA (47th). The Canadiens are the better team here, and I fully expect them to get the win tonight in Carolina. 

 

 

Tonight's NHL Picks: November 23rd, 2015

We have two picks sent to members tonight, so we decided to send one of those out for free. Our other pick is a 4 unit pick for tonight, sent to members only. You can sign up by following the link below, you will instantly receive an email with tonight's 4 unit pick, as well as all of our picks for 30 days. 

 

 

 
Rangers ML 1.80
Risk: 2 Units | Win 1.60 Units

 

The Nashville Predators are scoreless in each of their last two games, this is not a good time for them to travel to New York tonight to face the best defense in the NHL (1.85 goals against per game), accompanied by the goaltender with the best save percentage AND goals against average tonight. Henrik Lundqvist in confirmed in goal for the Rangers tonight, and has a .943 SV% (1st) and a 1.85 goals against average (1st). Also note that Lundqvist is tied with Braden Holtby for "wins" with 11. The New York offense is 5th as of today, with an average of 3.10 goals per game, but have scored an average of 3.64 goals per game at MSG this season. Their defensive numbers even improve at home, to 1.73 GA/GP. 

 

The Predators didn't kick off their road trip like they had hoped, losing back-to-back games, by scores of 0-4 in either contest. The Predators defense and Rinne allowed just 18 shots against Columbus, but allowed goals on four of those shots. Nashville more than doubled Columbus in shots that game (39-18) but couldn't find the back of the net even once. Nashville is averaging just 2.11 goals per game on the road this season, while allowing 3.00 GA/GP when playing away from home, and are 4-4-1 on the road this season. The Rangers on the other hand have lost just five games this season (15-3-1-1 overall), and are an impressive 9-1-1 at MSG so far this season. New York has lost just once in their last ten games, a 2-1 loss @ the Tampa Bay Lightning, the Lightning broke the tie late in the third to secure the win. 

 

Pekka Rinne is probable tonight, and will face the current best goaltender in the League, Henrik Lundqvist (confirmed) in goal. The Rangers lead the Metro division with 32 points, and have a goal differential of +25 goals. New York trails league-leading Dallas by just two points, but note that the Stars have played one more game than the Rangers. If Nashville can't get some offense going tonight, they will be in trouble against these Rangers. Take New York to hand the Predators their third straight loss on the road tonight at Madison Square Garden.

 

Tonight's NHL Picks: November. 6th, 2015

Members have two picks going tonight, so we decided to send one out to you. There's also another $1000 beginners NBA freeroll at Draft Kings tonight, if you're into DFS. Best of luck!

 

Rangers ML 1.65
Risk: 2 Units | Win: 1.30
-This was added Mid-day, so there is no write-up ready.
If you want to sign up and get tonight's other pick, as well as all of our picks for 30 days, you can follow the link below.

 

 

Tonight's NHL Picks: November. 2nd, 2015

 
We haven't posted any free picks in a few days, but members are coming off of a perfect 3-0 weekend, cashing winners on the Penguins and Jets Saturday, as well as the Habs in regulation time on Sunday.

 

 
 
There's just three games scheduled tonight, we don't like anything offered in any of the games, therefore there will be no picks today; we certainly don't want to force a play just for the sake of making a bet.

 

 
We'll get an early start at the nine games on the board tomorrow, and will likely send those picks out to members sometime tonight.

 

 
 
We haven't posted any free picks in a few days, but members are coming off of a perfect 3-0 weekend, cashing winners on the Penguins and Jets Saturday, as well as the Habs in regulation time on Sunday.

 

 
 
There's just three games scheduled tonight, we don't like anything offered in any of the games, therefore there will be no picks today; we certainly don't want to force a play just for the sake of making a bet.

 

 
We'll get an early start at the nine games on the board tomorrow, and will likely send those picks out to members sometime tonight.

 

 

Tonight's NHL Picks: October 28th, 2015

The Habs let us down last night losing 5-1 to the Canucks.

 

There's just three games on the board tonight, we are passing as we don't like anything on the board (no plays).

 

There is a beginner NBA freeroll over at Draft Kings tonight if you are interested, click here for access. $1000 is up for grabs and entry is free. Just sign up if you don't already have an account, or if you have an account, log in and enter for free!
(This is a beginners only freeroll. A beginner is anyone who has played 50 or fewer NBA contests at Draft Kings).
Enjoy the day, talk tomorrow.
 

Tonight's NHL Picks: October 27th, 2015

The Montreal Canadiens have won nine in a row, leading the NHL in points with 18. The second closets club is the New York Rangers with their record of 6-2-2, for a total of 14 points in 10 games. The Canadiens have the second best offense in the entire league right now, scoring an average of 3.89 goals per game. Washington ranks number 1 with 4.14 goals per game. The meeting with Toronto on Saturday marked the first time the Habs allowed more than two goals against in one game this season. Note though that the Habs were playing on no rest, and Toronto managed 52 shots on Price, he stopped all but three to finish with a .942 save percentage. The Montreal defense has averaged just 1.33 goals against per game overall this season, their penalty kill is a near perfect 90.9%, while their power play is converting 22.9% of the time. Carey Price is probable tonight and has already recorded two shutouts and is a perfect 7-0, with a 1.29 GAA, and a .961 SV%.
 The Vancouver Canucks started their season on a high note with a big 5-1 win over the Calgary Flames, a game in which they out-shot the Flames 44-30. Since the home opener on October 7th, the Canucks have played seven games, dropping all but two. Vancouver is currently on a four game losing skid, all losses came at Home, and their offense is averaging just 2.00 goals per game at the Rogers Arena. The Canucks are 3-2-3 on the season, four of their games have required extra minutes, losing three of those decisions in overtime, and winning one in a shootout against the struggling Anaheim Ducks. The Canucks defense have allowed an average of 3.00 goals against per game at Home this season, and must host the Canadiens tonight that are scoring an average of four goals per game on the road. Note that the Montreal defense is still solid away from Home, as they have allowed just 1.60 GA/GP across their five road games. Obviously, the Habs are a perfect 5-0 on the road.  
The Habs are off to a nine game streak to open their season, and a win tonight will tie them for the NHL record of 10 consecutive wins to open a season. To put their performance into perspective, only two teams have accomplished this in NHL history. The Maple Leafs set the precedent back in 93/94, while the Buffalo Sabres matched this record in 06/07, and the Habs nine game start to their season is the best in Canadiens franchise history (98 years). The Canadiens are playing remarkable hockey right now, have a goal differential of +23, and have the edge against Vancouver tonight. Look for the Habs to win their 10th to tie the Leafs and Sabres tonight in Vancouver.

Tonight's NHL Picks: October 26th, 2015

2-0 on Saturday cashing a 3 unit play on the Habs for a profit of 1.41 units, as well as another 2 unit play on the Devils for a gain of 1.62 units. 3.03 units of profit on Saturday, for a YTD record of 14-5, +13.21 units.

 

We passed on Sunday as we didn't see anything we liked in any of the three games. We never force a play just "to make a bet"; doing so is irresponsible and gives hard earned profits back to the books.

 

Three games again tonight, we have one selection locked in:

 

Islanders -0.5 in regulation 1.84
Risk: 2 Units | Win: 1.68 Units
No write up today. Line was out significantly later than the other two and want to send this out now to give everyone time to lock it in. Taking the Isles to win in the first 60 minutes tonight.

Tonight's NHL Picks: October 24th, 2015

A 1-0 night again Friday with a winner on the Habs, dominating Buffalo 7-2. 1.30 units added to the bankroll, which brings us to 12-5, +10.18 units.

 

Backing the Canadiens again tonight. Also waiting on a line to be released for Buffalo/ New Jersey. If anything is added, it will be posted on Twitter only.  
Canadiens ML 1.47
Risk: 3 Units | Win: 1.41 Units

 

Who could bet against these Montreal Canadiens right now? We took the Habs last night against Buffalo, they cruised to their 8th victory of the season, out-scoring Buffalo 7-2, Price sat the game out and will get the nod against Toronto tonight. Everything from yesterday's write-up still applies here. The Canadiens offense is superb, now averaging 3.75 goals per game thanks to the seven goal output last night. The Habs defense was allowing just 1.00 goals against per game until yesterday, and are now just 1.13 goals against per game, leading the league on defense. The Canadiens offense currently ranks 3rd overall. Note that in three home games this season, the Habs have allowed just one goal against at the Bell Centre.

 

Again, Carey Price is confirmed tonight and is well rested as he took last night off. Carey has won all six of his starts this season and has already recorded two shutouts in just six games. He has a 1.00 goals against average and a .966 save percentage. Price will face a confirmed Jonathan Bernier in goal tonight.

 

The Maple Leafs are off to their usual struggles, winning just one game of 6.  The Leafs managed their lone victory over the Blue Jackets, whom are still winless. The Toronto offense is scoring just two goals per game on average. Note though that this number would be significantly lower, if not for the six goals scored against Columbus, and four against Ottawa. Take those two games out of the equation and the Leafs have scored just three goals combined across the four other games (just 0.75 goals per game). Toronto has managed two shootout appearances thus far, dropping both. When it comes to special teams, the Leafs have a 12.5 PP% while their penalty kill unit was successful just 79.2% of the time. The Habs have been a perfect 100% on the penalty kill at home across three games, and are 89.3% overall.

 

The Canadiens are doing everything right, both offense and defense is remarkable. The Habs have won eight in a row for a reason, and are backed by one of the best (if not the best) goalie in the NHL tonight. Take the Habs to win their ninth at the expense of the Leafs tonight at the Bell Centre.

Tonight's NHL Picks: October 23rd, 2015

1-0 last night with a winner on the Preds, defeating the struggling Ducks 5-1.

 

One pick locked in for this evening:

 

Canadiens ML 1.65
Risk: 2 Units | Win: 1.30 Units

 

The Canadiens are off to a sensational 7-0 start to their season, and look for their eighth win in a row tonight at the expense of the Buffalo Sabres. The Habs continue to have no problem finding the back of the net, while keeping a solid grip on their opponents offensive efforts. In seven games so far this season, the Habs have allowed just 1.00 goal per game on average, leading the league by exactly one goal per game, as the Preds, Rangers, and Canucks are tied for second with 2.00 goals against per game. Also note that the Habs have already record two shutouts as a team this season. When it comes to scoring, the Habs aren't having any trouble at all, currently averaging 3.29 goals per game, and have even scored 3.25 goals per game across their four road games this season.

 

Goaltender Carey Price will get the night off tonight and will (likely) be in goal tomorrow night against the Leafs. Mike Condon will get the nod against Buffalo tonight, making his second start of the regular season. Mike played one game with the Habs so far this season, defeating the Senators 3-1 (in Ottawa) on October 11th. He faced 21 shots, stopping 20 of them, to finish with a .952 save percentage. In 48 games with the Hamilton Bulldogs of the AHL last season, Mike finished with a record of 23-19-6, a 2.44 GAA and a .921 SV%. At the other end of the ice tonight we will see Chad Johnson confirmed in goal for Buffalo. Chad is off to a 2-4 start with a 2.35 GAA, accompanied by a .906 save percentage.

 

Buffalo is struggling to find goals, and of course wins. The Sabres have won two of six games so far, the most recent victory came against Toronto in a shootout on Wednesday, while their first win of the season came against the struggling Columbus Blue Jackets (whom are off to an 0-8 start by the way). The Sabres are scoring just 1.67 goals per game, while their defense is allowing 2.50 goals against per game. The Sabres penalty kill unit needs work, as they are currently just 68.8% on the penalty kill. The dull Sabres offense will face the best defense in the NHL tonight that is allowing just 1.00 goals against per game on average in seven games. The Habs penalty kill unit has been successful 91.7% of the time so far this season, matching up against a Buffalo power play unit that has converted just once in their last 16 tries. The Sabres actually scored as many power play goals in one game against Columbus (3 of 7) as they have across the rest of their games, combined. Montreal is the better team tonight, both their offense and defense has been remarkable. Albeit they are without Price tonight, they still have a remarkable roster that shouldn't have a problem taking care of Buffalo tonight.

Tonight's NHL Picks: October 22nd, 2015

Couldn't get the win last night on the Avs team total over 2.5. Neither team recorded a single goal in regulation, the Canes wrapped things up with a goal in overtime.

 

One pick tonight. Pick is out later than usual today, there isn't a write-up ready at the moment.

 

Will try to send a write-up out before game time, but no promises.

 

Predators ML 1.74
Risk: 2 Units | Win: 1.48 Units

Tonight's NHL Picks: October 20th, 2015

One pick for this evening:

 

Canadiens ML 1.69
Risk: 2 Units | Win: 1.38 Units

 

No write up today.

Tonight's NHL Picks: October 18th, 2015

1-0 again Saturday, for a profit of 1.50 units. Our record improves to 9-3 (75%) +10.02 units. $100 bettors are already up over $1000.

 

One pick for Sunday:
Rangers -0.5 in regulation 1.69
(Risk: 2 Units | Win: 1.38 Units)

 

No time for a write-up today. This line was just released, game starts at 1:00 ET.

Tonight's NHL Picks: October 17th, 2015

1-0 on Friday cashing with ease, considering the Leafs went over the total by themselves.  
One pick locked in for tonight. If we add any picks for tonight they will only be sent out on Twitter. Click to Follow @Expertnhlpicks on Twitter!

 

Blackhawks ML 1.50
(Risk: 3 Units | Win: 1.50 Units)

 

The Columbus Blue Jackets are and all out disaster right now. The Jackets met the Toronto Maple Leafs in Columbus last night, losing their fifth game of the season, and have yet to secure a victory. Things won't get an easier for Columbus tonight, playing back-to-back on the road on no rest, heading into Chicago to take on the Blackhawks. This Blue Jackets defense is basically non-existent, they've allowed an average of 5.20 goals against per game, including allowing six goals via the Leafs last night, and 7 goals against Ottawa on Wednesday. Columbus also has a detrimental 66.7% penalty kill percentage heading into the game tonight.

 

The Blackhawks are just 2-3 on the season and have an opportunity to get their third win of the season tonight against Columbus. Chicago has been fairly solid on defense, allowing 2.60 goals against per game thus far. Their offense has been generally quiet, averaging just 2.00 goals per game, however this talented Chicago offense can exploit this weak Columbus defense tonight. Chicago is coming off a pair of back-to- back road losses against Philadelphia on Wednesday (3-0), and Washington on Thursday (1-4). If Chicago can't get offense going tonight against Columbus then they are in serious trouble.

 

It's not confirmed who will start for Columbus tonight. Bobrovsky made his 5th start of the season against Toronto last night, losing yet again, this time allowing 5 goals on 33 shots (.848 SV%). If Bobrovsky gets the start tonight, he will be playing on no rest, and certainly can't be very confident in himself, or his defense right now. The other goaltending option for Columbus is Curtis McElhinney. Curtis made an appearance against the New York Rangers on Saturday, allowing 1 goal on just 7 shots (.857 SV%). Curtis had a record of 12-14-2 last season, with a .914 SV% and a 2.88 GAA. Crawford is listed as probable for Chicago tonight.

 

The Columbus Blue Jackets are in rough shape. They have lost all five games this season, and have a defense that has allowed an average of 5.20 goals against per game. The Jackets are playing on no rest after losing 6-3 to Toronto last night. Chicago is well rested after their pair of back-to-back losses and can easily get back into the win column tonight with a victory over these struggling Columbus Blue Jackets. Take the Blackhawks to hand the Blue Jackets their sixth loss of the season tonight in Chicago.

Tonight's NHL Picks: October 16th, 2015

0-1 last night as the Penguins finally earned their first win of the season, a score of 2-0 on two goals that came within 2:02 of each other. Hammond didn't get the start but Anderson still played sensational in goal, stopping 34 of 36 shots. 

Leafs/ Blue Jackets OVER 5.5 1.87
(Risk: 2 Units | Win: 1.74 Units)

 

Both the Toronto Maple Leafs and Columbus Blue Jackets are looking for their first win of their respective seasons tonight. Toronto nearly got their first win last weekend against Ottawa, losing 5-4 in a shootout. The Leafs finally mustered up some offense, after recording just one goal across their first two games, a 3-1 loss to the Canadiens, and a 4-0 loss at the hands of the Red Wings. Toronto goaltender James Reimer is confirmed to start tonight, he is 0-0-1 on the season with a 2.87 GAA and a .891 save percentage. James went 9-16-1 in 35 games last season, recording a 3.16 GAA, and a .907 SV%, and didn't get a single shutout all season. The Toronto defense continues its usual struggles, allowing 12 goals in their three games, an average of four goals against per game.

 

The Columbus Blue Jackets defense is an abomination, they have dropped all four games thus far and have allowed at least four goals in each contest. Columbus has allowed 20 goals in their four games, and average of 5.00 goals against per game! The Blue Jackets offense hasn't been completely stagnant, they managed to score two goals against the Rangers (twice), and Buffalo, while recording three against Ottawa on Wednesday, en route to a 7-3 loss. There have been a total of 29 goals in four games for Columbus, an average of 7.25 total goals per game, each game has gone over the posted total.
 
Note that although Toronto and Columbus are struggling to find wins, they are both getting plenty of shots on goal. Toronto out-shot Ottawa 41-33 on Saturday, and even out-shot the Habs 37-29. A similar story for Columbus, out-shooting Ottawa 41-27 on Wednesday, and they also out-shot the Rangers 72-54 across those two games. Like Reimer, Sergei Bobrovsky is also confirmed in goal this evening. Sergei has played all four games for Columbus and has yet to record a win, with a dismal 5.05 goals against average, accompanied by an .830 SV%. Reimer has made two appearances for Toronto so far, providing relief for Bernier against Detroit, allowing 1 goal on 13 shots, and was in net against Ottawa on Saturday, allowing four goals on 33 shots (.879 SV%).

 

Both defenses are not performing well at all, both penalty kill units are hitting below 65% (Toronto: 63.6 PK%, Columbus 64.3 PK%), while Columbus is 29.4% on the powerplay, Toronto is converting 20% of the time. Toronto has an opportunity to get their weak offense going tonight against this struggling Columbus goaltender, defense, and penalty kill unit. Columbus has been scoring an average of 2.25 goals per game and can increase that number tonight against the Leafs defense. All signs point to this game going over 5.5 goals tonight in Columbus.

Tonight's NHL Picks: October 15th, 2015

Another 1-0 night last night, cashing 2.60 units with a winner on the Senators. Hopefully everyone got them locked in before all of the movement; that line was way off from where it should have been, and it showed, as the Sens closed at 1.99. With that winner, our record improves to 7-2, +8.78 units.

 

Senators +0.5 in Regulation 2.03
(Risk: 2 Units | Win: 2.06 Units)
*Line available at Pinnacle Sports*

 

Tonight we will be taking the Senators +0.5 in regulation time. This means that the Senators actually don't have to win the game, they simply must at least make it to overtime. If the score is tied at the end of regulation, we cash this wager. Also, if the Senators win outright in regulation (or OT), we will win also.

 

I normally don't like backing teams playing on the 2nd night of a back-to-back on the road. However, the Senators continue to impress, while the Penguins still have yet to get their offense going. Ottawa is currently offered at 2.73 to win with OT included. Another sensational price on Ottawa tonight, 2.03 +0.5 in regulation time.

 

You may remember from the write up yesterday that Ottawa goaltender Andrew (''hamburglar'') Hammond is back on the roster after being sidelined with a groin injury. Craig Anderson made the start against Columbus last night, which leaves Hammond probable tonight against the Penguins. Again, from yesterdays write-up, Hammond had a remarkable record with Ottawa last season, going 20-1-2 with the club, with a .941 SV%, and a 1.79 goals against average. Hammond is just the 2nd goalie in NHL history to allow less than two goals or fewer in their first 12 starts. Frank Brimsek set the record, way back in 1938-1939.

 

Ottawa got a huge 7-3 win over the Blue Jackets last night on the road, the line on the Senators opened at 2.20, moved to 2.35 at one point, and closed at 1.99 (all odds from Pinnacle). Clearly bettors seen the value in Ottawa last night, and seized an opportunity. I see another opportunity tonight as the 3-1-0 Senators visit the 0-3-0 Penguins, with Hammond expected in goal. The Penguins managed to score two goals against Montreal on Tuesday, and now have just three goals in three contests, averaging 1.00 goal per game. The Penguins have to step up their game tonight if they are going to get past Hammond, assuming he plays anything like he did last season.

 

The Senators had plenty of offense going last night, scoring 7 goals on just 27 shots on goal. The Sens capitalized on 1/3 power play opportunities, and now have a 30.8 PP% over their four games. The Penguins still have yet to convert on a power play try (0.00 PP%), and have gone just 72.7% on the penalty kill in three games. Marc-Andre Fleury is probable tonight, and of three games so far he only really excelled in one, stopping 37 of 39 shots via the Arizona Coyotes, finishing with a .949 SV%. Fleury allowed 3 on 24 shots in the season opener against Dallas (.875 SV%), and 3 on 30 against the Canadiens (.900 SV%).

 

The game against Montreal on Tuesday was the first time the Penguins have scored more than one goal per game (they scored 2) dating all the way back to the 2015 post season against New York. The Penguins do have lots of offensive talent, but they are not clicking right now for whatever reason. Always remember that no sports team is ever "due" for a win (just look at all the teams the Coyotes , defeating Pittsburgh, LA, and Anaheim!). Naturally, the Penguins may actually wake up out of their offensive coma and may get the victory over Ottawa tonight, however we are taking the Sens +0.5 in regulation time; they do not have to win the game. They must simply make it to OT to cash this wager. Look for Ottawa to at least make it to overtime against Pittsburgh tonight. Line movement is fully expected again today, so lock in a great price while you can.

Tonight's NHL Picks: October 14th, 2015

Right back in the win column last night with a winner on the Habs, for a profit of 2.30 units, bringing our record to 6-2, +6.18 units.
Senators ML 2.30
(Risk: 2 Units | Win: 2.60 Units)
The Ottawa Senators head into Columbus with a 2-1 record, they opened up their season with a 3-1 win over the Sabres in Buffalo, and defeated Toronto 5-4 in a shootout on Saturday. That game was decided in a shootout despite the Senators having a 3 goal lead in the second, after scoring three goals in just over four minutes time. Craig Anderson is listed as probable as of right now, Craig is 2-0 on the Season , as the Senators lone loss came on Sunday with Matt O'Connor in goal. O'Connor saved 31 of 34 shots that game, finishing with a .912 save percentage. The Montreal defense proved to be too much for the Senators, reaching the net with just 21 shots on goal, scoring once.
The Columbus Blue Jackets aren't off to a very good start. They've dropped their first three games of the season, which began last Friday and Saturday, losing a home-and-home to the New York Rangers by a combined total of 9-4. The Blue Jackets went into Buffalo as fairly large favorites on Monday, only to lose their third in a row, to the Sabres of all teams. Columbus has scored just 2.00 goals per game on average, while allowing more than twice than number (4.33 goals against per game). The Columbus penalty kill unit is nothing short of a disaster, they've allowed four goals on 11 chances (63.6 PK%). This is bad news, as the Senators power play has converted 30% of the time across their three games.
Ottawa goaltender Andrew (''hamburglar'') Hammond is back on the roster after being sidelined with a groin injury, backup Matt O'Connor is back in the AHL. I would not be surprised in Hammond gets the start tonight, as the Senators also play tomorrow against Pittsburgh. Hammond had a remarkable record with Ottawa last season, going 20-1-2 with the club, with a .941 SV%, and a 1.79 goals against average. Hammond is just the 2nd goalie in NHL history to allow less than two goals or fewer in their first 12 starts. Frank Brimsek set the record, way back in 1938-1939...
Neither goaltender is confirmed tonight, however Sergei Bobrovsky is listed as probable for Columbus. He hasn't looked good at all this season, he has finished all three games with a sub .900 save percentage, and was relieved by Curis McElhinney on Saturday after allowing four goals on 22 shots (818 SV%). Sergei also allowed 4 goals on 25 shots in the first game against the Rangers (.840 SV%), and went 4 for 33 in Buffalo (.879 SV%).
The Columbus Blue Jackets are off to a rough start, and are certainly not worth the juice on them tonight (1.69). The Senators are looking much better in their three games, Hammond may start tonight, and the great price of 2.30 doesn't hurt either. There's value on the Senators tonight at this price.

Tonight's NHL Picks: October 13th, 2015

Canadiens ML 2.15
(Risk: 2 Units | Win: 2.30 Units)

 

The Pittsburgh Penguins are off to an 0-2 start to their 2015-2016 season, and the 2-1 loss via the Arizona Coyotes marks the fifth game in a row (dating to the playoffs last year) in which the Penguins haven't scored more than one goal. Pittsburgh opened up their season on Thursday with an 0-3 blanking at the hands of the Dallas Stars, a game in which the Penguins out-shot Dallas 37-24, but couldn't find the back of the net. Phil Kessel recorded his first regular season goal as a Penguin on Saturday, the Penguins lone goal so far this season. Pittsburgh allowed themselves to get out-shot 28-39 by the second worst team in the NHL last season. Marc-Andre Fleury is confirmed in goal tonight for the Penguins and was in goal for both Pittsburgh losses, recording a .875 SV% against Dallas (3 of 24), and a .949 save percentage against Arizona (2 of 39).

 

The Canadiens are off to a much better start than these struggling Pittsburgh Penguins. Montreal has an 3-0 record so far, winning against Toronto (3-1), Boston (4-2) and Ottawa by a score of 3-1 on Sunday. Note that the Canadiens kept both the Bruins defense and Senators defense to just 21 shots on goal, and all three victories came on the road. The Canadiens recorded the victory over Ottawa without All-Star goaltender Carey Price. Price (confirmed to start this evening) is 2-0 on the season thus far (facing Toronto and Boston), and has a mere 1.50 goals against average, accompanied by a .948 save percentage. Carey went 44-16-6 last season with nine shutouts, finishing his season with a .933 SV% and a 1.96 GAA.

 

The Canadiens are managing to win hockey games, but need to improve their power play. Ottawa gave Montreal seven power play opportunities on Sunday, albeit the Habs didn't capitalize on a single one. Montreal is just 1-14 on the man advantage thus far, for a dismal 7.1% conversion rate. Pittsburgh is also struggling on the powerplay, they've yet to record a power play goal in seven tries, for an (obvious) 0.00 PP%. The good news for Montreal is that Pittsburgh is not only struggling on the powerplay but are also struggling on the penalty kill (77.8%).

 

Not much is going right for the Penguins right now. They were eliminated from the first round of the playoffs last season by the Rangers, and are now on a five game streak in which they've scored just 1 goal or less per game. Kessel has the lone goal for Pittsburgh right now, which was actually unassisted, leaving the entire Pens roster with just one point so far across two games. Montreal is off to an excellent 3-0 start, all victories coming on the road, and will look for their fourth straight tonight with a win over Pittsburgh. Carey Price is well rested after getting Sunday off against Ottawa and will look for his third win in a row tonight. I'll gladly back the Habs at these odds with Carey confirmed in goal.

Tonight's NHL Picks: October 12th, 2015

2-0 on Saturday for a gain of 2.92 units. We emailed out the Senators ML, but also added the Capitals  in regulation time on Twitter. We are now 5-1, +5.88 units YTD.

 

There was just one game on the board yesterday and we sat that one out. One pick locked in for this afternoon.

 

Note: If we add any picks today, they will ONLY be tweeted on Twitter. There will not be another email sent today. To make sure you don't miss any picks, click to follow @Expertnhlpicks on Twitter.

 

Blue Jackets ML 1.64
(Risk: 2 Units | Win: 1.28 Units)

No write up today. The game starts at 3:00 ET. 

Happy Thanksgiving to our fellow Canadians, Happy Columbus Day to our friends in America.

Tonight's NHL Picks: October 10th, 2015

A tough loss last night as the Red Wings did indeed continue their scoring frenzy, however the game ended shy of going over the total, with a 4-0 Red Wings victory. It looked like we would "push" at the very least, considering Detroit already had four goals on the board at just 3:54 of the second! Couldn't get another goal from either team in almost two full periods, a tough break indeed.

 

Moving onto today, 14 games on the board, one pick locked in so far. Not all of the lines have been released yet.

 

Note: If we add any picks today, they will ONLY be tweeted on Twitter. There will not be another email sent today. To make sure you don't miss any picks, click to follow @Expertnhlpicks on Twitter.

 

Senators ML 1.74
(Risk: 2 Units | Win: 1.48 Units)

 

The Toronto Maple Leafs head back home to Toronto this evening to take on the Ottawa Senators, after an embarrassing 4-0 loss to the Red Wings last night in Detroit. The Leafs have now managed to score just one goal in two games, on a combined 59 shots on goal. Detroit reached the net with just 22 shots and four of those were goals. Maple Leaf goaltender James Reimer is confirmed tonight and will be playing on no rest tonight after providing relief for Bernier last night. Bernier had a rough outing against Detroit, allowing a power play goal in the first 1:15 of play, the first of three goals allowed on just 9 shots, to finish his 20:20 on the ice with a .667 save percentage. Reimer allowed just one goal on 13 shots last night (.923 SV%), however James finished last season 9-16-1, with a  3.16 goals against average, and a 0.907 save percentage, with 0 shutouts.
Craig Anderson has been confirmed in goal for Ottawa tonight. Craig had a record of 14-13-8 last season, with a 2.49 GAA, 0.923 SV%, 3 shutouts. Craig faced 27 shots from the Sabres on Thursday, allowing just one goal to rookie Jack Eichel, finishing his season opener with an impressive .963 SV%. Ottawa was also impressive on the draw against Buffalo, winning 60% of the faceoffs. Again, the Ottawa Senators are looking for a strong start to this season,  as they lost 16 of their first 27 games last season which led to the firing of Paul MacLean. The Senators have an opportunity to gain another "W" tonight against this struggling Maple Leafs club that will be playing on no rest, starting a goaltender playing on no rest, travelling back to Canada after their 4-0 loss in the Motor City on Friday. This game will certainly present an easier challenge than tomorrow's meeting with the Canadiens.  I expect the Senators to get the win tonight in Toronto, to hand the Leafs an 0-3 start to their season.

Tonight's NHL Picks: October 9th, 2015

Leafs/Red Wings OVER 5 Goals 1.73
(Risk: 3 Units | Win: 2.19 Units)

 

Mike Babcock and the rest of the Maple Leafs will head to Detroit tonight to face Mike's former team. The Leafs dropped their home opener 3-1 to the Montreal Canadiens on Wednesday. That game ended with a 3-1 Habs victory, a game that looked like it was heading over the total early with a Max Pacioretty goal 3:09 into the 1st. Toronto managed 37 shots at Price, finding the mesh just once. Montreal reached Bernier with 30 shots of their own, scoring on three of those.

The Detroit Red Wings had an exceptional preseason, they finished with zero regulation time losses (6-0-2) while scoring 33 goals, leading the NHL postseason in scoring. Toronto scored 17 of their own goals during the post season while allowing 22 goals against, and finished with a record of 3-5. Jonathan Bernier is confirmed in goal for the Leafs this evening. Jonathan finished the 2014-15 season 21-28-7, with a 2.87 GAA, a 0.912 SV%, 2 shutouts. Jimmy Howard will start for the Red Wings this evening. Howard went 23-13-11 last season, with a 2.44 GAA, 0.910 SV%, also 2 shutouts.

Just two NHL players scored four goals in the post season, 24 year old Tomas Tatar was one of them, earning four points in four preseason games, to finish 5th overall in points across all players in the preseason. Tatar led the Red Wings in goals last year with 29, and will likely continue to impress this season, maybe he'll even record a point or two tonight. The Red Wings have made 24 (yes, twenty four) consecutive post season appearances for a reason, and will likely make their 25th this season. Toronto had plenty of shots on goal last game but could only get past Price once. The Leafs will face Howard tonight. Howard played just one game during the playoffs last season before being replaced by Petr Mrazek. The Red Wings demonstrated their offensive abilities well in the pre season (averaging 4.13 goals per game), and will undoubtabley continue their scoring frenzy tonight against Toronto. Take this one to go OVER 5 goals tonight in Detroit.

Tonight's NHL Picks: October 8th, 2015

Hope you enjoyed that winner on the Rangers last night, for a profit of 2.60 units. It's always nice to start the season off with a winner!

 

One pick locked in for tonight so far, there may be an addition or two depending on line movement.

 

Ottawa Senators ML 1.77
(Risk: 2 Units | Win: 1.54 Units)

 

The Buffalo Sabres will be lead by Dan Bylsma this season, after two consecutive last place finishes. Other additions to the Sabres roster this season includes: C Ryan O'Reilly, C Jack Eichel, C David Legwand, G Robin Lehner, D Cody Franson, LW Jamie McGinn. The Buffalo club departed with D Nikita Zadorov, D Andrej Meszaros, C Cody Hodgson, C Mikhail Grigorenko, G Anders Lindback.

 

Both goaltenders are confirmed for the match this evening, Craig Anderson will get the nod for Ottawa, while ex-Senator Robin Lehner will make his regular season debut as a Buffalo Sabre. Robin didn't fare well as a Senator over the past two seasons: 2013/14: 12-15-6, .913 SV% 3.06 GAA; 2014/15: 9-12-3, .905 SV%, 3.02 GAA.

 

The Senators are looking to burst into the 2015-16 season with some momentum from last season, after needing that 23-4-4 finish to qualify for the playoffs. Ottawa does not want a repeat of the beginning of last season, as they lost 16 of their first 27 games which led to the firing of Paul MacLean. The Senators made a few roster moves for their upcoming season, which includes the arrival of  G Matt O'Connor, C Eric O'Dell, D Michael Kostka, and the departure of RW Erik Condra, D Eric Gryba, C David Legwand, G Robin Lehner.

 

The Sabres are dealing with a few injuries right now, as detailed below.
Buffalo Injury Report
[D] 10/07/2015 - Bobby Sanguinetti out indefinitely ( Upper Body )
[D] 10/07/2015 - Brendan Guhle out indefinitely ( Upper Body )
[RW] 10/07/2015 - Brian Gionta "?" Thursday vs. Ottawa ( Lower Body )
[D] 10/06/2015 - Zach Bogosian out indefinitely ( Lower Body )
[C] 10/06/2015 - Cody McCormick "?" Thursday vs. Ottawa ( Blood Clot )
[D] 10/05/2015 - Josh Gorges probable Thursday vs. Ottawa ( Lower Body)

 

Ottawa is looking for a positive start to this season and can get that with a win on the road in Buffalo tonight, against a club that has finished dead last in either of the last two seasons. Sure, the Sabres now have Jack Eichel and are lead by Dan Bylsma and can possibly improve on their last two seasons, but that will take some time. Take Ottawa to spoil the Sabres home opener tonight in Buffalo.

 

You can find the Senators at 1.77 over at Sports Interaction where they are offering a deposit bonus of up to $100.

Tonight's NHL Picks: October 7th, 2015

It's great to be back. Here we are folks, the 2015-16 NHL season has finally arrived.
Four games on the board tonight, the Habs visit the Leafs, Rangers meet the defending Stanley Cup Champions in Chicago, Vancouver will visit the Flames in Calgary, while Los Angeles plays host to the San Jose Sharks, who will be without Raffi Torres for 41 games.
The Leafs are the only team not favored at Home tonight (not much of a surprise), as the Habs swept their season series with the Leafs 4-0 last season. The Habs are clearly the better team in this one (backed by one of- if not the best- goalie in the NHL), but on the road in the Leafs home opener offered at just 1.69 is a no play for us.

 

The Rangers at 2.30 offers solid value tonight. Let's not forget that the Rangers did win the President's Trophy last season, leading the League with 113 points, and had the highest goal differential, +60 goals (Lightning were 2nd with 51 goals). The Blackhawks defeated New York four games to two, to win the Stanley Cup (their third in six seasons) last season. New York has been a strong cup contender and have another solid roster heading into this season, minus backup goaltender Cam Talbot (enter-  ex Blackhawks backup / AHL IceHogs Antti Raanta to replace him). It will be interesting to see how Raanta will fare on the Rangers roster this season. Talbot will be between the pipes for the Oilers this season.

 

New York also had a solid performance in the preseason, losing just one game in regulation time (4-1-1), earning 9 points. This line should realistically be a pick'em (neither team is favored), or maybe a slight edge to Chicago considering "home ice advantage". We are likely seeing these odds (2.30) because the betting public will probably favor the defending cup champions, regardless of the odds. Needless to say, of the four games tonight, we will be backing the New York Rangers at 2.30 and will look for them to get revenge against Chicago tonight to open up their season with a victory on the road.

 

New York Rangers ML 2.30
(Risk: 2 Units | Win: 2.60 Units)

 

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