Tonights NHL Picks October 30th 2014

Philadelphia Flyers @ Tampa Bay Lightning: OVER 5.5 Goals 1.87
Risk: 2 Units | Win: 1.74 Units (Members Only Pick)

The Flyers upset the LA Kings by a score of 3-2 on Tuesday, I’m surprised there wasn’t more scoring as the Flyers fired 43 shots on Quick, while the Kings got 40 shots off at Emery.  Tonight’s match up will feature two of the top seven highest scoring teams in the NHL as of today, as the Lightning are ranked 4th overall with 3.40 goals per game, while the Flyers sit in the 7th place spot with 3.22 goals per game. When it comes to defense, the story is quite the opposite for the Flyers, as they are 24th overall on defense allowing 3.33 goals against per game. The Flyers allow 32.6 shots against per game, and don’t exactly have a superstar goaltender, which is likely why they are allowing so many goals. Ray Emery is probable for Philly tonight and is 4-0-1 with a 2.44 GAA and a .924 SV%. Last season Emery went 9-12-2-2 with Philadelphia and finished the season with a 2.96 GAA and a .903 SV%. In 5 games at home this season the Lightning have scored 4.00 goals per game at home, while allowing 2 goals against per game at home. The Flyers are scoring 3.00 goals per game on the road, and allowing 3.50 goals against. Both clubs have been excellent on the man advantage, the Lightning are currently 6th with a 24.3 PP% (31.8% when playing at Home), while the Flyers aren’t too far behind, ranked 8th with a 24.2 PP%. The Flyers penalty kill  is 22nd overall at 79.2% while the Bolts are 7th at 86.2%. Take note that the Flyers are 6-2 over/under this season while the Bolts have split the totals 5-5. We should see plenty of scoring in Tampa Bay tonight, I will be shocked if this one doesn’t reach at least 6 goals.

New York Islanders @ Colorado Avalanche: OVER 5.5 Goals 1.79
Risk: 2 Units | Win: 1.58 Units (Members Only Pick)
The Islanders were the highest scoring team in the NHL up until Tuesday evening, when the Penguins dominated the Devils 8-3, making Pittsburgh the current highest scoring team with 4.12 goals per game. The Islanders are now second in scoring with 3.78 goals per game. The Avalanche may only be scoring 2.20 goals per game overall (26th), but note that the Avs have scored an average of 3.00 goals per game in their four home games this season, and they have also allowed exactly 3.00 goals against per game during their four games at the Pepsi Center. The Avalanche home power play is clicking 20% of the time, which is an improvement over their overall power play which is just 13.2% (22nd overall). They will face the struggling New York road penalty kill unit that has been successful just 69.2% of the time when playing on the road. The Islanders have neglected their defensive efforts as they are the 5th worst defensive team in the NHL allowing 3.44 goals against per game overall (25th). Both clubs are allowing lots of shots against, the Flyers are 26th overall in SA/GP with 32.6 while New York is 18th allowing 30.3 shots against per game. Jaroslav Halak is probable for the Isles and has split his 6 games, with a 3.51 GAA and a .889 save percentage. Varlamov is probable for the Avalanche and has gone 1-2-3 in 6 games this season and has a 2.94 GAA and a .922 SV%. The Islanders have had 7 of 9 games go over the total this season (78%) while the Avs are 3-7 over/under. Note though that 2 of the 3 games that did go over the total for the Avalanche were at Home (67%). Look for the goals to pile up in Colorado tonight.
Boston Bruins @ Buffalo Sabres: BRUINS -1.5 2.28
Risk: 1 Unit | Win: 1.28 Units
Note that we are taking the Boston puck line for just 1 unit as opposed to the usual 2. Boston should be able to cover however they are plagued with injuries right now.
Nothing is going right for the Buffalo Sabres. In ten games played the Sabres have managed just two victories so far, a 4-3 shootout win over Carolina back on Oct.14th, and a recent 2-1 win over the San Jose Sharks, although the Sharks doubled the Sabres in shots, 30 to 15. If the Sabres want to increase scoring they must begin by taking more shots on goal. Buffalo also has the fewest shots per game with 21.8 S/GP, and managed just 10 shots on goal against Toronto on Tuesday in a 4-0 loss. The Maple Leafs reached the net with 37 of their own shots. The Sabres defense is one of the worst in the League, currently allowing 3.30 goals against per game (21st).  The Bruins offense has yet to kick into high gear as they have been less than average in the scoring department (19th) with just 2.54 goals per game. The Bruins were 3rd in scoring last season (3.15 G/GP).  Note though that the Bruins are scoring an average of 3.00 goals per game when playing on the road. The Buffalo power play unit has yet to convert, while Boston is 13th overall with a 21.9 PP%. When playing at Home the Sabres are scoring just 0.50 goals per game while allowing 3.25 goals against per game. The Bruins road defense is allowing just 2.20 GA/GP which is less than they are allowing overall. The Sabres haven’t been very disciplined, taking an average of 7 minor penalties per game (14.0 PIM/GP) while the Bruins are serving 11.8 PIM/G.  Jhonas Enroth is confirmed for Buffalo with a 1-5 record, a 3.13 GAA and a .914 SV%. Svedberg will likely make the start for Boston tonight with a 1.57 GAA and a .951 SV%. The Bruins have lost 2 of their last 3 games and will be looking to bounce back with a big victory over Buffalo tonight.