Two +EV plays for tonight, we are coming close with all these big underdogs losing the last 5 by just 1 goal. In reality, both of our selections tonight have at least a 50% chance of winning, as they’re both currently out-playing their opponents and look just as good, if not better, on paper.
Since the odds are more than even money (2.00), but the probability of the Sharks or Canucks winning is 50/50, every dime we spend is an investment rather than a loss, as probability states that we do indeed we have an advantage with positive expected value.
Here are the two “dogs” for tonight:
Vancouver Canucks @ Dallas Stars: CANUCKS 2.17
Risk: 2 Units | Win: 2.34 Units (Members Only Pick)
This is a very generous price on the Canucks tonight. This one should be more of a pick’em. The Vancouver squad is 3-1-0 on the short season, defeating the Flames twice, outscoring them 9-3, and the Oilers twice, outscoring them 7-4. The Canucks met their toughest challenge yet this season on Saturday where they lost 4-2 to the Tampa Bay Lightning. The Dallas Stars have also played five games this season, with a record of 2-1-2, and still haven’t found a win at Home. Both clubs are scoring plenty of goals so far, scoring an average of exactly 3.00 goals per game. There is a difference in the performance of each clubs defense though. The Stars defense is allowing 3.20 goals against per game (21st overall), currently 0.20 more goals per game than they are scoring. The Canucks on the other hand are allowing just 2.50 goals against per game, 17th overall. Vancouver has been playing more disciplined hockey than Dallas, taking an average of 11.2 penalty minutes per game, while the Stars are taking 13.2 PIM/G. The Vancouver penalty kill unit is doing a good job so far stopping 87.5% of their opponents power play attempts (10th overall), while the Stars have the third worst power play in the League at just 71.4% (28th overall). The Vancouver offense is finding the net more than Dallas, with an average of 34.5 shots per game, while allowing just 26.5 SA/GP. The Stars are shooting an average of 27.6 shots per game while allowing 32.0 SA/GP. The Canucks are equally good, if not better than the Stars right now, take the +EV play on Vancouver tonight.
San Jose Sharks @ Boston Bruins: SHARKS 2.20
Risk: 2 Units | Win: 2.40 Units (Members Only Pick)
Here we are with another +EV play. The Sharks get shutout by New York and everyone suddenly hops back on the Boston train? Remember Bostons 3 game losing streak just last week, when everyone was doubting the big bad Bruins? Firstly, the Bruins offense has been an absolute failure compared to what we have seen in previous seasons. The Bruins offense finished third overall last season with an average of 3.15 goals per game. As of today, they are scoring just an average of 2.00 goals per game, which is currently ranked 26th overall, even the Oilers are scoring more than Boston! The Sharks on the other hand are doing a fantastic job scoring goals, currently at 3.17 goals per game, and the scoreless game against New York is included in that figure. The San Jose offense currently sits 8th overall. The Sharks defense has also been performing better than the Bruins, as the Sharks are allowing just 2.33 GA/G (again, the 4 goals allowed against New York is included in that figure), while the Bruins are allowing 2.43 goals against per game. The San Jose power play is clicking at 21.7% (11th), which dominates the Bruins power play that has been successful just 13.6 % of the time (21st overall). Again, even the Oilers power play has been more successful than the Bruins. It appears Boston needs a lesson in discipline, currently taking 15.4 penalty minutes per game. This is not good for Boston at all as they have a mediocre 79.3 PK% (20th overall). The Sharks are 82.4% on the penalty kill (16th). Antti Niemi is probable for the Sharks tonight with his 3-0 record, 2.27 GAA and .933 save percentage.The Sharks have been performing better than the Bruins so far this season, and to get them at this price is certainly positive expected value.
