We missed our over by one goal last night in a 3-2 Islanders overtime win. Two plays for tonight, note that we are taking the Penguins for 4 units.
Pittsburgh Penguins @ Winnipeg Jets: PENGUINS 1.70
Risk: 4 Units | Win: 2.80 Units (Members Only Pick)
The Pittsburgh Penguins sit atop the Metropolitan division standings with 17 points in 11 games played, the Canadiens lead the Eastern Conference with 19 points but note that they have three games on the Penguins. The Pens are 8-2-1 on the season, 3-0-1 on the road, and have won five in a row, winning each of those contests by at least three goals, and won by a five goal spread in two of those five wins. Pittsburgh is the highest scoring team in the NHL by quite a margin with 4.09 goals per game, the next closest team is the Lightning with 3.50 goals per game. The Jets have thrown together a three game winning streak, although two of those victories were decided by one goal in back to back 1-0 victories over the Rangers and Blackhawks consecutively. The Jets offense is nowhere near as powerful as the Penguins, as the Jets rank 28th overall in scoring with 1.85 goals per game, and are just one of three teams scoring fewer than two goals per game on average. The Pittsburgh power play has been a great success, as the Pens are 41.3% overall on the man advantage, and are 42.9% on the power play when playing on the road. They will face the 5th overall Winnipeg penalty kill unit tonight that is successful 88.2% of the time. The Jets power play converts just 11.6% of the time, the 5th worst power play in the League right now. The Penguins are 7th overall on the penalty kill (86.7%), and take note that the Penguins have killed 30 consecutive penalties over their past four games. Ondrej Pavelec is probable for Winnipeg tonight and is 6-4-1 on the season with a 2.01 GAA and a .924 SV%. Note that Pavelec has a career record of 2-12-0 accompanied by a 4.33 GAA in 14 career starts versus the Penguins. Ondrej finished last season 22-26-7-1 with the Jets, with a .901 SV% and a 3.01 GAA. Marc-Andre Fleury is probable for Pittsburgh tonight and is off to a 7-2-0 start to the season with a 1.89 GAA and a .931 SV%. It was announced yesterday that Fleury has been re-signed with the Penguins to a 4 year $23 million contract. Fleury heads into this game with back-to-back shutouts and is 1st overall in the League with three. The Penguins are the better team in all aspects of the game, they have won five in a row, they are the highest scoring team in the NHL with a defense that allows just 2.09 goals against per game against one of the weakest offenses in the League. Take the Penguins to extend their winning streak to six at the expense of the Jets tonight.
Calgary Flames @ Tampa Bay Lightning: OVER 5.5 Goals 2.05
Risk: 2 Units | Win: 2.10 Units
Risk: 2 Units | Win: 2.10 Units
Both clubs enter this contest on three game winning streaks, the Lightning have defeated the Coyotes (7-3), Flyers (4-3) and the Capitals (4-3), sending all games soaring over the total. The Lightning are scoring an average of 3.50 goals per game, making them the second highest scoring team in the League behind the Pittsburgh Penguins (4.09 goals per game). When playing at Home, the Lightning are scoring 4.00 goals per game, while allowing 2.29 GA/GP at the Amalie Arena. Overall the Bolts are 16th on defense allowing 2.58 goals against per game. The Flames overcame some tough obstacles with 6 injured players but that hasn’t stopped them from winning three games in a row, finding victories over Nashville (4-3), Montreal (6-2) and Washington (4-3). Again, all three games went soaring over the total. The Calgary offense is scoring 2.86 goals per game overall (9th) and have scored 3.00 G/GP over their last 10 games, and have also scored 14 goals in their past three games, an average of 4.67 goals per game. Scoring increases to 3.25 goals per game when playing on the road, and the victories over Montreal and Washington both came on the road. The Flames have one of the worst penalty kill units in the League (26th overall) at 75.0%, and must face the third best power play in the NHL tonight which belongs to the Lightning at 25.0%. When playing at Home, the Bolts have gone 31.0% on the man advantage, while the Flames penalty kill remains 75% when playing on the road. The Bolts scored on 3 of 10 power play tries during their three game winning streak, while the Flames allowed two goals on five of their opponents power plays during their last three games. These two clubs met back on October 21st in a 2-1 Tampa Bay overtime victory. I don’t expect to see just two goals in regulation time again tonight. The Bolts weren’t awarded any power play opportunities in that game, the Flames scored on 1 of 2, and there were just 44 total shots on goal, 22 by each club. Jonas Hiller is off to a 6-2-1 start on the season with a 1.96 GAA and a .935 SV% but will face the second highest scoring team in the NHL tonight. Ben Bishop is probable for Tampa Bay and is 7-1-1 with a 2.45 GAA and a .912 SV%. Both teams are scoring plenty of goals right now, offense seems to be the top priority for both clubs. Expect to see plenty of scoring in Tampa Bay this evening.
