The league-leading Montreal Canadiens were blanked 5-0 by the Rangers last night spoiling our only play of the day.
Four games scheduled tonight, we will be going with one selection:
Philadelphia Flyers @ New York Islanders: OVER 6 Goals 1.95
Risk: 2 Units | Win: 1.90 Units
This match will feature two of the highest scoring teams the NHL has to offer. The New York Islanders, currently 3rd overall in the scoring department with 3.20 goals per game played, will meet the Philadelphia Flyers, who are currently 6th overall in goals per game played with an average of 3.00 G/GP. In 18 games this season the Flyers have seen 11 go over the total, while just 7 stayed under the total; 61% of Flyers games have gone over the total. The story is quite similar for the Islanders, as they have gone 12-8 over/under this season (60% over the total). When it comes to defense the Flyers are rated 25th overall allowing an average of 3.05 goals against per game played, while the Islanders are 20th overall allowing 2.85 goals against per game played. When playing on the road, the Flyers are allowing 3.50 goals against per game, while the Islanders have scored an average of 4.25 goals per game across their 8 games at Home this season. Both clubs share awful penalty kill numbers, as the Flyers are the worst team in the NHL on the penalty kill at 71.9%, while the Islanders aren’t much better with a 25th overall 75.4 PK%. The Islanders had five straight games go over the total until their recent 4-1 victory over the Penguins, which was just one goal shy of going over the total, despite a total of 63 shots on goal. Also note that four of the last six games for the Flyers have gone over the total. For the goal tending match-up tonight we will likely see Steve Mason in goal for the Flyers, versus Jaroslav Halak for the Islanders (both still probable). Mason has a record of 4-6-1 with a 2.86 GAA (31st) and a .913 SV% (29th) with 0 shutouts (36th). Halak is 9-4 on the season with a 2.42 GAA (20th), a .918 SV% (18th) and 2 shutouts (4th). Three of Halak’s last four starts have gone over the total, with one of the totals set at 6 goals. Note that the last four meetings between these two clubs have all gone over the total, dating back to October 2013, with a combined 31 goals in 4 games, an average of 7.75 goals per game.
Here are some “over” trends worth noting:
Over is 4-0-2 in Flyers last 6 Monday games
Over is 9-2 in Flyers last 11 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Over is 4-0 in Islanders last 4 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game.
Over is 4-0 in Islanders last 4 Monday games.
Over is 4-0 in Islanders last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings
