The Predators played great hockey against the Blues last night but ending up losing with just under 6 minutes left in the 3rd thanks to a goal by Paul Stastny.
Here’s a the write-up for our 4 unit play tonight.
(4 units) New Jersey Devils @ Washington Capitals: OVER 5.5 Goals 2.13
Risk: 4 Units | Win: 4.52 Units (Members Only Pick)
The Washington Capitals have the 5th best offense in the NHL, scoring 3.20 goals per game overall, and have won back-to-back games, scoring 4 goals in each, sending both games over the total. That makes seven of the last ten Capitals games that have gone over the total (70%), and overall this season the Capitals have seen 9 overs and 6 unders, which means 60% of their games have gone over the total this season. The Capitals aren’t shy in the scoring department but their defense hasn’t been the greatest, as they are just 19th overall on defense allowing 2.80 goals against per game. The New Jersey Devils defense is even worse than Washington, as the Devils are the 24th overall on defense allowing 3.06 goals against per game. The Devils offense may be scoring just 2.63 goals per game overall (18th) but note that when playing on the road the Devils are scoring 3.11 goals per game, and scoring also improves for the Capitals when playing at Home, as they have scored an average of 3.44 goals per game across their nine home games so far this season. Also note that the Capitals are also allowing more goals when playing at Home, 3.11 GA/GP at home compared to their overall average of 2.80 GA/GP. The New Jersey defense is an abomination when playing Away, as they’ve allowed a whopping 3.78 goals against per game when playing on the road this season. Note that these two clubs have two of the worst penalty kill units in the League (the Devils have the worst), as the Capitals are 20th overall with a 78.8 PK%, while the Devils have the worst penalty kill at 66.7%. The worst penalty kill in the League must attempt to stop the 2nd best power play in the NHL tonight which belongs to the Capitals with a very impressive 28.0 PP%. The Devils are 13th overall on the man advantage with a 20.4 PP%. Note that over their last 10 games the Capitals have gone 30% on the power play while the Devils went just 61.8% on the penalty kill over their last 10 games. We also have some over trends worth noting:
Over is 5-0 in Capitals last 5 home games.
Over is 4-0 in Capitals last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Over is 4-0 in Capitals last 4 vs. Eastern Conference.
Over is 4-0 in Devils last 4 road games.
Over is 4-0 in Capitals last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Over is 4-0 in Capitals last 4 vs. Eastern Conference.
Over is 4-0 in Devils last 4 road games.
Everything in this match up points to plenty of scoring, and to get the over at a price of 2.13 provides positive expected value for us; take this over for 4 units tonight.
