October 29th 2013 Free NHL Picks

Toronto Maple Leafs @ Edmonton Oilers: Maple Leafs 1.84 BetOnline

The 8-4-0 Maple Leafs will meet the 3-8-2 Oilers tonight in Edmonton. The Oilers are just 1-3 at Home and the Leafs are 3-2 on the road. The Maple Leafs latest outing was against the Pittsburgh Penguins on Saturday where they beat the Pens by a score of 4-1. The Maple Leafs were outshot 38-30 that game but still managed a win. The Leafs were also outshot by the Oilers (31-26) in their meeting this season, where the Leafs won 6-5 in overtime. We have a Leafs offense that has been averaging 3.25 Goals per game,and face the Oilers defense that allows 3.77 Goals Against per game. The Leafs have a 26.7 PP%, which is 3rd in the entire league (St.Louis Leads at 30.3%). The hot Leafs powerplay squad will face the Oilers Penalty Kill unit which is at 75.5PK% which is 2nd worst in the entire National Hockey League, with the Blackhawks being dead last at 74.4%. The Oilers also take quite a few penalties, at an average of 13.0 PIM/G so the Leafs should have a few powerplay opportunities. In the first meeting between these two teams the Leafs had 3 opportunities and scored on 1. The Oilers had 4 and scored on 1. The Toronto PK unit is pretty impressive, as they sit at 85.1 PK%, which is 6th in the NHL, (4th and 5th Ottawa and Vancouver are tied at 85.4 PK% which is only slightly higher). The Leafs defense allow less goals on average than the Oilers can score, at 2.50 GA/G (Oilers are at 2.69 G/G). When it comes to goaltending, both Reimer and Bernier are playing well, they are both above a .900 SV% (Bernier 2.34 GAA/.930 SV%, Reimer 2.56 GAA/.933 SV%). The options for Edmonton aren’t as great, as LaBarbera is at a 3.65 GAA/ .857 SV%, and Dubnyk is at 4.01 GAA/ .878 SV%. Lets stick with a solid Leafs team to beat the Oilers for a second time this season tonight at Rexall.

Dallas Stars @ Montreal Canadiens: Canadiens in Regulation 2.00

Great value here on the Canadiens to win in regulation at even money. The Canadiens have not seen an overtime yet this season, as they are 7-5-0. Every game the Canadiens have won has been by 2 or more goals. The Habs played great hockey last night in New York and gave us a nice underdog winner. We have yet another situation tonight where both teams take plenty of penalties. The Dallas Stars average 14.1 PIM/G and the Montreal Canadiens are at 15 PIM/G. The Canadiens offense (was at 3.00 G/G yesterday) are now averaging 2.92 G/G. The Stars aren’t too far behind at 2.64 G/G. The difference between these two teams lies in the special teams. As you know, both teams take a lot of penalties. The Canadiens powerplay is at 24% (was 25 PP% yesterday before the Rangers game) which is 6th in the League. This strong PP unit will face the Stars penalty kill which isn’t the greatest. The Stars have a 79.5PP% which is 20th in the League. Normally this wouldn’t be a huge deal, except for the fact that the Stars average nearly seven (minor) penalties per game. If you give the Habs seven powerplays, probability tells us they should be able to score (they are scoring on almost 1/4 of their chances, at 24.0 PP%). They had six last night against New York and scored on 1. The Rangers had 5 opportunities and the Habs stopped all of them. Dallas is lacking on the powerplay, where they are only successful 15% of the time, which is 23rd in the league. The Stars also played last night, against Buffalo, where they won (barely) by a score of 4-3. Lehtonen is the probable starter for Dallas, he has a 1.60 GAA, and a .949 SV%, but last night he allowed 3 goals on 25 shots for a save percentage of .880. If Lehtonen gets the start again tonight, he will be playing on 0 days rest. The other two options for Dallas are Ellis (3.60 GAA, .895 SV%) and Campbell(6.00 GAA, .872 SV%). Carey Price got the night off last night as Peter Budaj played and stopped all 27 shots against him. If Price starts tonight he will be well rested.  We will stick with the Habs at home tonight in regulation for a great price.

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