November 9th 2013 Free NHL Picks

Toronto Maple Leafs @ Boston Bruins: UNDER 5 Goals 2.23

The Maple Leafs are coming off a shootout victory against the New Jersey Devils last night in Toronto where the Leafs won 2-1. They managed only one goal in regulation time against the Devils last night. In their previous game against the Vancouver Canucks (Nov.2) the Leafs couldn’t score any goals. The Leafs as a team have an average of 3.00 G/G but they will face a rock solid Bruins defense tonight that allows only 1.87 GA/G. The Bruins as a team manages 2.73 G/G and the Maple Leafs defense allows 2.31 GA/G. Both of these teams take quite a few penalties (Leafs 16.4 PIM/G, Bruins 13.0 PIM/G) but the Leafs have the 5th best penalty kill unit in the League, at 86.2%. Ironically, they also hold the 5th place spot on the power play, at 22.8 PP%. The Bruins power play could be a lot better, as they are converting only 15.9% of the time (20th in League for PP%). The last five games for the Bruins have all ended in exactly 5 goals, and two of those games required overtime, and then a shootout to achieve the 5th goal. In the last five games for the Leafs, 1 game has tied 5 goals, 3 have gone under 5 goals and 1 has gone over (4-2 victory over the Flames- who allow 3+ goals per game). At the least, we should be able to get a “push” tonight on this one at exactly 5 goals, so we will take this UNDER tonight for a great price.

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Detroit Red Wings : Lightning 2.20

The odds should probably be the other way around for this one. We have excellent value on the Lightning tonight. The Lightning are 11-4-0 on the season and 4-2-0 away. The Red Wings have nearly split their decisions, going 9-5-3 (3-2-3 home). The Tampa Bay offense can score 3.27 goals per game, and the Red Wings are sitting at 2.53 G/G. The Lightning also allow less goals than the Red Wings, at 2.47 GA/G (compared to the Red Wings 2.59 GA/G). The Lightning’s Special Teams are also better than the Red Wings. The Lightning covert on 20.7% of their power play opportunities (10th PP%) and the Wings have a 17.6 PP% (17th). The penalty kill numbers are similar for both squads, with Tampa Bay at 84.2% and Detroit at 84.1%. We are going to take the Lightning tonight simply because they provide great value for the price and they are simply playing better hockey than the Red Wings right now.

Washington Capitals @ Phoenix Coyotes : OVER 5.5 Goals 1.98

We have two teams here who are not shy when it comes to scoring goals. Both teams manage more than three goals per game, but don’t do much to stop goals from reaching their own nets. The Capitals are currently scoring 3.06 G/G and the Coyotes are slightly ahead at 3.12 G/G. The Washington Capitals own the Number 1 spot in the League on the power play, at 28.1 PP%. They will face a Coyotes penalty kill unit tonight that is far from great, at only 78.8 PK which is 23rd in the league or 7th worst. The Coyotes manage 11.6 PIM/G so the Capitals should have no problem capitalizing on a few power play opportunities. This should allow for a few goals on the board. When it comes to goals against, Phoenix allows 3.06 GA/G (25th in League, 5th worst) which is ironically exactly how many goals the Capitals score per game on average. Also note that the Coyotes are 7-0-1 at home, and when at home the Yotes manage to score 3.75 goals per game. When away, the Capitals goals also increases, at 3.43 goals. All signs point to the OVER in Phoenix tonight and we will take it for a good price.

expert nhl picks .com on facebook