November 19th 2013 Free NHL Picks

New York Islanders @ Toronto Maple Leafs: OVER 5.5 Goals 1.98
*Risk: 4 Units | Win: 3.92 Units (Member’s Only Pick)*

The Leafs had a tough start to November losing 4 of 6 games scoring only 9 goals in 6 games (average of 1.5 goals per game). This has affected the leafs goals per game as they are now at 2.75G/G (11th overall). When playing at home, Toronto’s numbers are still strong, scoring an average of 3.33 goals per game when playing at home. The Leafs defeated Buffalo by a score of 4-2 on Saturday evening. This was the first time the Leafs have scored 4 goals since October 30th. Hopefully this is a sign that the Leafs are back on track. The New York Islanders have the 3rd worst goals against numbers in the League allowing 3.14 GA/G. Note that when playing “away” the Islanders allow slightly more goals (3.56 goals against away). The Islanders have the worst penalty kill in the whole League with a low 72.3 PK%. They will have to face the 3rd best power play in the League which belongs to the Maple Leafs (23.5 PP%). When the Leafs play at the Air Canada Centre, their power play numbers are even better, as they have a 31.3 PP% when playing at home (the Islanders road penalty kill is only 71.9%). The Islanders currently average 11.4 penalty minutes per game. The Leafs take a lot of penalties, with 17.4 PIM/G and have an 11th place penalty kill unit (83.5 PK%). In 10 meetings since February 2011, 8 games between these two teams have gone Over the total (of 5.5 Goals), only 2 meetings stayed under the total of 5.5 Goals. This one should go Over the total and we will take it for a good price.


Chicago Blackhawks @ Colorado Avalanche: OVER 5.5 GOALS 2.02

This game features two of six of the NHL’s highest score teams. The Chicago Blackhawks are 1st overall for goals per game with 3.57 goals per game. The Blackhawks defense is 22nd overall allowing 2.81 goals against per game. The last 5 games for Chicago have all gone over the total, which included a 7-2 loss to the Nashville Predators and a 5-4 win against Phoenix, 5-4 win against Edmonton, a 5-2 win against Dallas and their most recent 5-1 victory against San Jose. That’s 22 goals scored by Chicago in their last 5 games: an average of 4.4 goals per game. The Blackhawks allow 3.00 goals against when playing away from home, and the Avalanche score 3.45 goals per game when playing at home. The Avalanche are 6th overall for scoring goals with 3.10 goals per game. The Colorado denfense allows 2.16 goals against per game but when playing at home they allow 2.36 goals against. The Avalanche started the season with a boom but have lost their last 3 games against Florida (1-4), St.Louis (3-7), and Carolina (1-2). The Avalanche need to start scoring goals again as they have been outscored 13-5 over their last 3 losses. There is also a list of over trends listed below:
Over is 5-0 in Blackhawks last 5 overall.
Over is 4-0 in Blackhawks last 4 games playing on 1 days rest.
Over is 4-0 in Blackhawks last 4 games following a win.
Over is 4-0 in Avalanche last 4 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game.
Avalanche are 8-1 in their last 9 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game.
Under is 12-2-2 in Avalanche last 16 Tuesday games.
Over is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings in Colorado.
Over is 11-5 in the last 16 meetings.

Boston Bruins @ New York Rangers: BRUINS 2.09

The Boston Bruins are 12-6-1 on the season and have gone 4-3 away. The New York Rangers have split their decisions, going 10-10-0 and have split their home games 4-4-0. The Bruins are still the best defensive team in the NHL allowing only 1.84 goals against per game. The Rangers offense will have quite the task in front of them, as they are the 4th worst in the NHL for scoring goals, with only 2.10 goals per game and they face the best defense in the League. The Bruins do fairly well for themselves on the offense, scoring 2.74 goals per game (14th overall), and when playing away the Bruins score 3.00 goals per game. The Rangers allow 2.50 goals against per game. The Bruins also have the Rangers beat when it comes to special teams. The Bruins are 18% on the power play, and the Rangers are 17.4%. On the penalty kill the Bruins are stopping 86.7% of their opponents power plays (4th overall), while the Rangers have a 83.8 PK%. Tuukka Rask is probable for the Bruins and is the 4th best goalie in the NHL when it comes to save percentage (.943) and goals against average (1.68). He has the 2nd most shutouts in the League with 2 shutouts. When playing the next day (no rest) the Bruins are 2-1 (66.66%) and on one day rest the Rangers are 4-5 (44.44%). Simply put the Bruins are the better team here and we have excellent value on them at this price against the Rangers. season pass banner