November 16th 2013 Free NHL Picks

We had a great night last night going 2-1 with our picks and we picked up 2.34 units. The Sabres/Leafs game stayed under the total and the Sharks had no problem winning in 60 minutes. Boston blew a 2-0 lead and allowed the Senators to come back with 4 unanswered goals which was our only losing play of the night. We have three plays going on this Saturday, but one of them is a Premium Pick sent out to members only (click here to learn more)

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Phoenix Coyotes: Lightning 2.32
  *Risk: 2 Units | Win: 2.64 Units (Member’s Only Pick)*
These two teams are a lot closer to even strength than this price indicates. This is exceptional value on the Lightning tonight. The Lightning are without their point leader Steven Stamkos (23 points) but that hasn’t stopped them as they have gone 2-0-0 in his absence which included a 5-1 pounding of the Anaheim Ducks on Thursday night. The Lightning’s starting goaltender Ben Bishop has been playing incredible this season, he has a 13-2 record, accompanied by a 1.96 GAA and a .932 SV%. Bishop has not yet lost a game in November: he is a perfect 6-0. The Lightning as a team allow 2.32 goals against (11th overall) which is far better than the Coyotes goals against average of 3.05 GA/G. When it comes to offense, both teams can score 3+ goals per game (Tampa Bay: 3.05 G/G, Phoenix 3.15 G/G). On the power play, these clubs are almost equal. Tampa Bay has a 19.7 PP% (12th) and Phoenix has a 20.6 PP% (10th). The difference in special teams lies in the penalty kill, where the Lightning have a huge advantage over the Coyotes. The Bolts have a 86.8 PK%, which is 3rd best in the entire NHL. The Yotes need some serious improvement, killing only 77.9% of their penalties successfully (26th overall or 4th WORST). The Coyotes manage to take 11.4 PIM/G so the red hot Lightning power play is bound to have a few opportunities tonight. We are going to take this exceptional price on the Tampa Bay Lightning tonight and look for them to get their 3rd straight victory without Stamkos.

Chicago Blackhawks @ Nashville Predators: Blackhawks -1.5  2.70

The Blackhawks are doing an excellent job at scoring goals, currently scoring 3.58 goals per game. In fact, they are the best in the league for goals. The Nashville Predators are 25th overall for scoring, with 2.11 goals per game. When playing on the road, the Blackhawks goals per game increases even further, to 3.71 goals. They also allow less goals on the road, 2.43 goals against compared to their overall average of 2.68 GA/G. In their last four games, the Predators have scored only 2 goals. They have lost to their last four opponents by a combined score of 17-2. Their last win came against Colorado on Nov.6 by a score of 6-4. Since then they have lost every game, by at least two goals, including a score of 5-0 twice, a 3-1 loss and a 4-1 loss. The Predators allow 3.06 goals against overall, and they must face the best team in the NHL when it comes to scoring goals. The Blackhawks have a weak penalty kill overall (74.1 PK%), but when on the road their PK% jumps up to 85.7%. Overall the Preds have an 81.0 PK% but they aren’t even coming close at home as they are only killing 76% of their opponents power plays successfully. On the road the Blackhawks power play numbers are fantastic, they have a 31.6 PP% on the road (22.7 % overall). The latest outing for the Predators was against Pittsburgh on Friday where they lost 4-1 and managed only 18 shots on goal, and allowed 33 shots against Pittsburgh.

Buffalo Sabres @ Toronto Maple Leafs: Sabres +0.5 in Regulation  2.21

This one is for the Sabres to have 0.5 points added to their score at the end of regulation. This means that the Sabres can win the game, or if the game goes to overtime this wager will automatically win. If the game is tied at the end of regulation, the Sabres will technically win by half of a point. The Sabres and Maple Leafs faced off on Friday night and the Sabres (now with Ted Nolan behind the bench) managed to pull off a 3-1 victory. This cashed a nice “under” pick for us, and the Maple Leafs continue to struggle scoring goals. The Leafs goals per game have dropped all the way down to 2.68 G/G and in their last 5 games have managed to score only 4 goals (average of 1 goal per game). What happened to the Leafs? If they can’t find the net again tonight, this one is bound to be another low scoring affair, which is why this pick on the Sabres +0.5 provides such excellent value. Nazem Kadri, the Leafs second place point leader is still on the suspension list tonight (until Nov.19th) for his elbow on Wild goaltender Niklas Backstrom . We are going to take this one for a great price tonight and hope the Sabres can hold on again tonight until the end of regulation. Remember, the Sabres DO NOT have to win this game, they just have to make it to OT and this wager will automatically win, as it is +0.5 in regulation. They can of course win also.


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