November 15 2013 Free NHL Picks

A winning night last night as our pick on the Phoenix/Chicago OVER was an easy winner. The Boston/Columbus game resulted in a “push” on exactly five goals. We received a tie on that one. We have three picks going for this Friday night.

Boston Bruins @ Ottawa Senators: Bruins 1.98

(Note: the odds have changed quite a bit since writing this late last night.)
This is a great price on the Bruins against the Senators. On no days rest, the Bruins are a perfect 2-0, and are 4-1 in their last 5 games playing on no rest. Also note that Tukka Rask did not play against Columbus on Thursday so he should be well rested. The Bruins have the best defense in the League, now at 1.72 GA/G after their outing with Columbus last night. When playing “away”, the Bruins have the second best goals against average in the NHL, at 1.83 goals against. The Bruins also score more goals on the road than they do normally, with 3.17 goals per game when playing away (compared to 2.78 goals per game overall). When playing at home, the Senators allow 3.00 goals per game (2.94 GA/G overall). The Senators score 2.94 goals per game overall, but when at home this number drops to 2.56 goals, which is 23rd in the League. The Senators are converting on 16.7% of their power play tries (21st overall) but note that the Sens home power play is 25th in the NHL at a very low 9.68%. The Bruins have the best goals against average in the League, and are going 86.2% on the penalty kill (5th overall), and also take note to the fact that the Bruins have killed 26 consecutive opposition power plays. We will stick with the Bruins tonight as they provide excellent value for this price.

Toronto Maple Leafs @ Buffalo Sabres: UNDER 5 Goals 2.17
Did the Toronto Maple Leafs forget how to score goals? The Leafs have gone from averaging 3+ goals per game to only 2.78 G/G. In their last four games, the Leafs have scored only 4 goals, which included only 1 goal in each their last two games, 2 goals in one game and 0 goals in another. In their last 3 games in October, the Leafs scored 4 goals in each game, and then the wheels suddenly fell off in November. The Buffalo Sabres are no good at scoring goals either, as they currently only score 1.65 goals per game. They are dead last in the entire NHL for goals per game at 1.65. The Maple Leafs take a lot of penalties, but don’t be too alarmed: the Leafs are have a 84.9 PK% (8th best in League) and the Sabres are only 13.6% on the power play (23rd or 7th worst overall). There have been some management changes for the Sabres club, with Interim coach Ted Nolan behind the bench and  Pat LaFontaine as director of hockey operations. Also note that the goaltending options for the Maple Leafs are very good, as  Jonathan Bernier and James Reimer have combined for a 1.54 goals-against average over the past seven games. Nazem Kadri will miss tonight’s game serving a suspension. He currently has the second most points for the Maple Leafs club, with 14 points (5 G, 9 A). We also have a few “under trends” for this match tonight, listed below:

Under is 4-0 in Maple Leafs last 4 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game.
Under is 4-0 in Maple Leafs last 4 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game.
Under is 4-0 in Maple Leafs last 4 overall.
Under is 4-0 in Sabres last 4 games following a win

San Jose Sharks @ Edmonton Oilers: Sharks in Regulation 2.00

The Oilers 3-0 loss to the Dallas Stars on Wednesday marked the third straight home game for the Oilers in which they have failed to put any goals on the board. The Oilers manage to score 2.35 goals per game overall, but note that when home this number drops significantly, all the way down to only 1.43 goals per game. The Oilers have a terrible goals against average, at 3.85 goals against per game which is the WORST goals against in the NHL. It gets even worse when the Oilers play at home. When at home, the Oilers allow 4.14 goals against. The Sharks offense knows how to find the back of the net. They score 3.53 goals per game (2nd BEST in the NHL) and when playing on the road this number is still impressive at 3.00 goals per game. The Sharks allow 2.10 GA/G overall, but when away this number drops to only 1.91 goals against. The Sharks are playing on no rest, and have gone 1-0 on no rest so far this season. The Oilers are playing on one day rest and have gone 2-7-1 in this situation. The last three games for the Sharks have needed extra minutes (and 6 of the last 7) but they really shouldn’t need extra time against the Oilers tonight. The Oilers are struggling to score goals at home, and also struggling to stop goals at home. The Oilers take 12.6 PIM/G and have a 80.8 PK% (22nd overall). They must face the Sharks impressive power play unit that can convert 21.4 % of the time (8th overall). Lets go with this good price on the Sharks to win in regulation tonight against an Oilers team that is struggling to score goals at home.

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