It was a tough night last night as both of our selections let us down. It seems like when the NHL’s elite face weak opponents, they give the game away. The Avalanche allowed the Hurricanes 18 takeaways last night, compared to 3 that the Avs took from the Canes. The Avalanche who can score 3+ goals per game netted only one goal against a Hurricanes team that has a hard time scoring two goals per game. Despite a 2-0 lead at the end of the 1st, and most of the 2nd, the Ducks gave the game to the Panthers and lost 3-2. The Ducks out-shot the Panthers 34-25 and still lost. They also had 3 power play opportunities and couldn’t score on any of them. It was a brutal night as both of our selections should have easily won their games. There are only three games on the schedule tonight, and we have one pick that provides excellent value:
Dallas Stars @ Edmonton Oilers: OVER 5.5 GOALS 1.93 BetOnline
These two teams are not offensive powerhouses by any means, but they do allow plenty of goals against. The Oilers are allowing almost 4 goals against per game as they are currently allowing 3.90 GA/G. The Stars aren’t quite as bad, but are far from good, at 3.00 GA/G. Note that when “Away”, the Stars Goals Against jumps to 3.30 goals against, and when “Home” the Oilers goals against goes well past four goals at 4.33 goals against. Another quick fact is that one three days rest (Stars) they are 2-1 over/under. On two days rest (Oilers) they are 2-1 over/under. Six of the last ten games for the Oilers have gone over 5.5 goals, and there has been totals of nine goals twice in that span, and seven goals twice. Six of the last ten games for the Stars have also gone over 5.5 goals; they have seen totals of seven four times, and nine once where they managed to lose to Anaheim 6-3. There are plenty of “Over Trends” for this match-up, listed below:
Dallas:
Over is 5-0-1 in Stars last 6 vs. Pacific.
Over is 5-0 in Stars last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.
Over is 3-0-1 in Stars last 4 overall.
Edmonton:
Over is 3-0-1 in Oilers last 4 overall.
Over is 4-0 in Oilers last 4 when their opponent scores 2 goals or less in their previous game.
Over is 6-1 in Oilers last 7 vs. Western Conference.
As you can see, there are plenty of signs pointing to the OVER in this match-up, and we will take it for a good price tonight. Usually the “over” for a match-up like this would be so heavily juiced it is not worth betting, but at 1.92 we have excellent value on this one and we will gladly take it.
