January 5 2013 Expert NHL Picks

January 5 2013 Expert NHL Picks

We picked up a HUGE WINNER on the Washington/Minnesota Over 5.5 Goals (2.52) gaining 3.04 units. The Carolina/New York game needed just one more goal to go over the total. It was a 1-1 night for us but we still managed to pick up 1.04 units thanks to our huge victory. We have three regulation time picks going for Sunday, which includes a members only pick, and a game starting at 1:00 PM Eastern.

Winnipeg Jets @ Pittsburgh Penguins: PENGUINS in Regulation 1.72

NOTE: 1:00 PM EST START!

The Jets will face a tough challenge against the Penguins on Sunday. The Penguins are 18-3 at Home this season (30-12-1 overall) and will gain their 12th Home win in a row with a victory over the Jets. The Penguins play exceptional hockey at Home, scoring 3.43 goals per game while allowing just 1.95 goals against per game at the Consol Energy Centre. The tired Winnipeg squad must travel to Pittsburgh after suffering a 1-4 loss via the Boston Bruins on Saturday. The Jets haven’t won a game this season on no days rest (0-4-1), while the Penguins are 18-4-1 on one days rest (13-4 after a Win). The Winnipeg offense is struggling, scoring only 2.57 goals per game (18th), and score only 2.19 goals per game when playing Away. The Penguins have the best power play in the NHL at 25.9%, and have the 2nd best penalty kill in the League at 88.4%. The Jets are going to have a hard time converting on any power play opportunities as the Penguins penalty kill is an exceptional 92.7% at Home, while the Jets have a weak 10% success rate on the power play when playing on the road (14.6% overall: 25th). The Penguins are easily the better team and will look for their 12th Home victory in a row on Sunday against the fatigued Winnipeg Jets. We’ll take the Penguins at Home in 60 minutes.

 

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Edmonton Oilers: LIGHTNING in Regulation 2.26

The Tampa Bay Lightning have won two in a row, both wins coming on the road (2-0 vs Calgary, 4-2 vs Vancouver) and will head to Edmonton to face off against the struggling Edmonton Oilers. The victory over the Flames marked the fifth straight road win for the Lightning, and they have scored 18 goals in those 5 games, while managing to allow just 5 goals against, and they don’t show any signs of slowing down in Edmonton. The Lightning have improved to 25-12-4 on the season (11-8-2 Away), while the Oilers are just 13-26-5 (6-11-2 Home). The Oilers continue to allow the most goals against per game (3.43 GA/G) while their offense can score just 2.50 goals per game. Things have been exceptionally bad for the Oilers lately, as they have scored only 2.10 goals per game over their last 10 games, while allowing 3.50 goals against per game. The Oilers are struggling to score goals and they must face the 3rd best defense in the NHL, which belongs to the Lightning with 2.27 goals against per game. Over their last 10 games, the Lightning have allowed 1.70 goals against per game. The Oilers do not have a single goaltender allowing less than 3.00 goals against per game, and only two of them have a save percentage above .900%. Tampa will likely have Ben Bishop between the pipes. Bishop is amongst the NHL’s best. He has an impressive 22-5-3 record, and a 1.83 GAA (3rd) and a .936 SV% (2nd). He has the most shut-outs of any goalie in the NHL with 4 shutouts. Ilya Bryzgalov is probable for the Oilers, and has a losing record of 2-5-2, a 3.13 GAA, and a .910 SV%. The Oilers don’t have much of an offense, or a defense for that matter (including mediocre goaltenders), and will face the Lightning who have won 5 games in a row on the road, outscoring their opponents 18-5. We’ll gladly back the Lightning to win in regulation for a nice price.

Vancouver Canucks @ Anaheim Ducks: DUCKS in Regulation 1.98

If the Ducks lose against the Canucks in regulation, it will be the first time the Ducks have lost a game at the Honda Centre in 60 minutes this season. They are the only team that are still undefeated at Home in regulation time this season. The Ducks are 16-0-2 at Home, and are an impressive 30-8-5 on the season, and are the 2nd best team in the NHL right now with 65 points. The Blackhawks lead the League with 66 points, but have played one more game than the Ducks have. A regulation time victory for the Ducks will move them into the first place spot with a one point lead. The Ducks offense scores 3.26 goals per game, currently 3rd place. When playing at the Honda Centre the Ducks have scored an average of 3.89 goals per game, while having allowed just 1.83 goals against per game. The Canucks have lost two in a row, allowing 4 goals against in each contest, while managing to score only 5 goals of their own in two games. The Canucks offense manages to score 2.64 goals per game on average (13th), and have scored 2.60 goals per game over their last 10 games; the Ducks have them beat by a goal, as the Ducks have scored 3.60 G/G over their L10 games. The Vancouver squad must face the Ducks on no rest, and are 5-1-2 on no rest, while the Ducks have gone 15-4-2 on one days rest, and 12-2-1 on one days rest after a win. The Ducks have yet to lose a game in regulation at Home.There’s good value here on the Ducks at this price and we are going to take them for 2 units.

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