January 11 2013 Expert NHL Picks

January 11 2013 Expert NHL Picks

Our members received another WINNER last night on our 4 unit play on the “over” in the Penguins/Oilers game. We’ve got two free picks going for today:

(3-Units) Pittsburgh Penguins @ Calgary Flames: PENGUINS in Regulation 1.87

The Calgary Flames are having a tough time finding wins, or even goals for that matter. The Flames have lost back to back games, getting outscored 5-0 by the St.Louis Blues (Jan 9) and suffering a 6-0 loss via the Phoenix Coyotes (Jan 7). That’s 11 goals against the Flames in just two games, an average of 5.5 goals against per game, while managing to score no goals of their own in those two games. The Penguins suffered a 4-3 loss to Edmonton in overtime on Friday, but have saved Marc-Andre Fleury for the Flames on Saturday. Jeff Zatkoff faced the Oilers and allowed 4 goals on 31 shots for a .871 SV%. Here’s the thing about Pittsburgh: it’s not too often they lose two in a row. The Penguins have lost two (or more) games in a row on only three occasions this season, with the last pair of losses coming back on November 23 & 25, at Montreal and then Boston. Not much is going well for the Flames, as they currently rank 29th overall for scoring with just 2.20 goals per game; the only team worse than them in the scoring department is still the Buffalo Sabres (1.63 goals per game). The Calgary offense has managed to score an average of 1.30 goals per game over their last 10 games, while allowing 3.40 goals against per game. The Flames defense ranks 28th overall allowing 3.18 goals against per game. The Penguins offense is 4th overall, scoring 3.17 goals per game, and have scored 3.70 goals per game over their last 10 games. The Penguins power play is currently the best in the League at 25.7%, while the Flames are going 80.8% on the penalty kill (18th), but are just 77.1% on the penalty kill over their last 10 games. The Penguins penalty kill ranks 2nd overall with an impressive 87.7 PK%, and have killed 90.3% of their penalties successfully over their last 10 games. Home ice won’t give the Flames much of an advantage, as the Flames have gone just 7-12-3 at the Saddledome this season, and have scored 2.09 goals per game on average across their 22 Home games, while allowing 3.00 goals against per game at Home. As stated earlier, the Penguins had Zatkoff in goal on Friday, so that leaves Marc-Andre Fleury as the likely starter against Calgary. Fleury has gone 25-10-1, has a 2.27 GAA, and a .917 SV%. The Flames don’t have a single goaltender with a save percentage better than .900%, and have confirmed Reto Berra in goal on Saturday. Berra has a record of 5-12-2, a 3.09 GAA and a .898 SV%. This Flames don’t present any real challenge for the Penguins, they should have no problem bouncing back after suffering a tough loss to the Oilers. We’ll look for Pittsburgh to handle this one in 60 minutes for 3 units.

Ottawa Senators @ Nashville Predators: OVER 5.5 Goals 2.02

There’s value here getting this over at a plus-money price. The Ottawa Senators have had a decent run as of late, before snapping their 4 game winning streak on Wednesday against the Colorado Avalanche. That loss to the Avalanche marked the 3rd game in a row that has gone over the total, and the 7th of the last 10 games for the Senators to have gone over the total. Ironically, the 3 overs in a row all ended in exactly 7 goals. The Predators have also seen the total of 7 goals recently, in a tough 3-4 loss to the Anaheim Ducks on Thursday. We have a confirmed goaltender for the Senators on Saturday, which will be none other than Craig Anderson. Craig has a 3.18 GAA (44th), a .903 SV% (35th) and a record of 14-9-5. The Predators will be without the services of Pekka Rinne, their best goaltender. With the absence of Rinne, the Preds will likely place Marek Mazanec between the pipes. Mazanec is just 8-9-3 on the season, and has a 2.84 GAA (32nd), and a .903 SV% (35th). Marek was in goal for the loss to Anaheim, allowing 4 goals on 28 shots for a .857 SV%. Three of the last five starts for Marek have gone over the total, while one game resulted in a “push” on 5 goals, and the other game staying slightly under the total ending in a 5 goal total. The Ottawa offense is currently 10th overall, scoring 2.84 goals per game, while their defense allows 3.11 goals against per game, ranked 27th overall. The Senators have scored 3.00 goals per game over their last 10 games, while allowing 3.20 goals against per game. The Predators allow 2.91 goals against per game overall (20th), but have allowed a whopping 3.50 goals against per game over their last 10 games. The Nashville offense scores 2.40 goals per game overall (25th) but have put an average of 2.80 goals per game on the board over their last 10 games, and have scored 2.52 goals per game across their 23 Home games this season. The Senators have a weak penalty kill (79.7%) and aren’t very disciplined, taking 12.6 penalty minutes per game. The Predators have an 81.7 PK%, however they have gone just 73.1% on the penalty kill over their L10 games. The Senators have had 27 games go over the total this season, while 17 have stayed under. The Predators are 17-19 over/under. The Ottawa club isn’t afraid to take shots, currently ranked 3rd in shots with 33.1 shots per game, however they allow the 4th most shots against per game with 34.0 SA/G. We should be able to reach at least 6 goals in this one, we’ll take the over for a nice price.