December 7th 2013 Free NHL Picks

December 7th 2013 Free NHL Picks

We picked up 2.24 units last night on our WINNER with the Sharks/Hurricanes Over but our Over pick on the Ducks/Blackhawks game was one goal shy of cashing. That makes us 1-1 last night for a profit of 0.24 units. There is lots of action in the NHL tonight and we have two picks going:

 

Buffalo Sabres @ Montreal Canadiens: UNDER 5 Goals 1.90

The Buffalo Sabres offense is still the worst in the entire National Hockey League, scoring a mere 1.59 goals per game. They must face the 2nd best defense in the League, the Montreal Canadiens, who allow only 2.00 goals against per game. The Montreal defense has been even better across their last 10 games, allowing only 1.80 goals against per game. When the Sabres play on the road, they are scoring even fewer goals. The Sabres score 1.54 goals per game when playing Away, and the Canadiens allow only 1.94 goals against per game when playing at the Bell Centre. The Sabres have had 8 games go over the total this season, while 16 games have stayed under, and the Canadiens have had 8 games go over and 18 stay under. That makes 16 Overs and 34 Unders between these two clubs. Carey Price is probable starter for the Candiens tonight and has the 2nd best save percentage in the League, a .938 SV%. Price has the 6th best goals against average , a 1.95 GAA. Also note that the Habs have the 3rd best penalty kill in the NHL with an 86.3 PK% and the Sabres have the 26th place power play that converts only 14.1% of the time. If this game does go over the total, it will have to be Montreal by themselves; the Sabres simply can’t score goals and they face the defensive powerhouse that is the Montreal Candiens tonight at home. This one should stay UNDER 5 goals.

Toronto Maple Leafs @ Ottawa Senators: OVER 5.5 Goals 2.01

Note: The odds have dropped a bit since writing this, but you should still be able to get near even money on this one.

The Toronto Maple Leafs have been struggling as of late, losing 5 of their last 6 games and were outscored 14-25 in that span. That makes 39 total goals over the Leafs last 6 games, which is an average of 6.5 goals per game on the board. The Leafs have allowed 3.30 goals against per game over their last 10 games. The Senators defense hasn’t been the greatest all season, allowing 3.17 goals against per game overall which is 26th overall. When the Senators play at home, they allow 3.29 goals against per game. Craig Anderson is confirmed to start for the Senators tonight and is not doing very good this season. Craig has gone 7-8-2 so far this season and has a 3.42 goals against average (45th overall) and a .897 save percentage (38th overall), and in his last 5 games he has allowed 18 goals against, for an average of 3.60 goals against per game over his L5 games. Both the Maple Leafs and the Senators penalty kill units need work. The Leafs have the 24th place penalty kill (78.4 PK%) and the Senators have the 23rd place penalty kill with a 78.7 PK%. The advantage in the special teams lies in the Leafs power play, as they have the 3rd best power play in the League that converts 25.3% of the time and they will meet the 23rd place Sens penalty kill tonight. The Leafs power play has been fantastic over their last 10 games with an exceptional 38.1 PP% and the Senators penalty kill over their last 10 games has been a low 66.7 PK%. The Leafs penalty kill has also been terrible over their L10, with a 65.7 PK%. Both teams take a significant number of penalties (Leafs 15.6 PIM/G, Sens 12.7 PIM/G) so there should be plenty of chances for both teams to score against the weak penalty kill units. The Senators also take the 4th most shots in the NHL (32.5 shots per game) and the Leafs seem to get out-shot every game; they allow the most shots against per game out of any team in the NHL allowing 36.6 shots against per game. We will take this OVER tonight in Ottawa for a very generous price.

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