December 16th 2013 Expert NHL Picks

December 16th 2013 Expert NHL Picks

We went 1-1 last night but still made a profit of 0.28 units with our 3-unit pick on the Ducks in regulation time cashing for us. The Flames played a close game but couldn’t hang on for a victory to give us a huge underdog winner. We have two totals picks for tonight’s action:

St.Louis Blues @ Ottawa Senators: OVER 5.5 Goals 1.97

This game will feature the 2nd highest scoring team in the NHL, the St.Louis Blues (3.45 goals per game) against the Ottawa Senators, who are the 9th highest scoring team with 2.79 goals per game. The Senators have one of the worst defenses in the League (27th overall) allowing 3.12 goals against per game. The Senators actually take the 3rd most shots per game in the League with 33.4 shots, but can’t seem to find the back of the net as many times as they should. The Senators fired off 39 shots against LA (Martin Jones) on Saturday but managed only two goals, while allowing 5 goals against on 26 shots against. We have seen them out-shoot the Maple Leafs 50-31 on Dec.7 but managed only 3 goals in a 4-3 loss. Ottawa allows the 4th most shots against with 34.1 shots against per game. The St.Louis Blues have the 4th best power play in the NHL that converts 24.1% of the time. The hot Blues power play will face a weak Senators penalty kill that is 78.7% overall (24th overall PK%) but has been stopping only 73.5% of their opponents power plays successfully over their last 10 games. The Blues offense has been exceptional over their last 10 games, scoring an impressive 3.70 goals per game over that span, while allowing 2.40 goals against per game which is slightly more than their overall goals against of 2.40 GA/G. Craig Anderson is the probable starter for the Senators tonight and has had a tough run this season, he has gone 9-8-3 and has a 3.36 goals against average (45th overall) and a .898 SV% (40th overall). The St.Louis offense is electrifying right now, scoring nearly 4 goals per game over their last 10. They face one of the worst defenses in the League tonight, including one of the worst goalies. We also have plenty of over trends for this match tonight, listed below:

Over is 3-0-2 in Blues last 5 vs. Eastern Conference.

Over is 2-0-3 in Blues last 5 vs. Atlantic.

Over is 5-0 in Senators last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.

Over is 6-0 in Senators last 6 vs. Western Conference.
Over is 7-0 in Senators last 7 following a loss of 3 or more goals

Toronto Maple Leafs @ Pittsburgh Penguins: OVER 5.5 Goals 2.05

Great value here on this OVER tonight in Pittsburgh. The Toronto Maple Leafs are reeling off a 7-3 victory over the Chicago Blackhawks on Saturday night. Have the Leafs finally crawled out of their slump? The Pittsburgh Penguins have the 6th best offense overall, scoring 3.03 goals per game, while allowing only 2.18 goals against per game, however, note that four of the Penguins’ top defensemen are currently injured. The Penguins have been surging as of late, winning 8 of their last 10 games, while scoring an impressive 3.50 goals per game over their last 10 games, and establishing an incredible 38.7 PP% over their last 10 games. This isn’t to much suprise though, as the Penguins have the best power play in the entire NHL, with an exceptional 26.7 PP%. The Leafs take way too many penalties (15.2 PIM/G) and have the 4th worst penalty kill in the NHL at 76.7%. Note that over their last 10 games the Leafs penalty kill has been terrible at 64.9%. The Leafs have the 13th place offense right now that scores 2.74 goals per game, but over their last 10 games the Leafs have managed to score 3.00 goals per game, but have allowed 3.80 goals against per game. Lets not forget that this game will feature the NHL point leader, Sidney Crosby who has 46 points (18 G, 28 A) and currently is on a six game point streak. Malkin, currently the NHL’s 3 place point leader (and Penguins 2nd point leader), is questionable for tonight. Historically, 8 of the last 9 meetings between these two teams in Pittsburgh have gone OVER the total. We’ll take the OVER tonight in Pittsburgh for a great price.

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