December 12th 2013 Free NHL Picks
A perfect 1-0 night last night with the Ducks winning yet again at Home. There’s a lot of action in the NHL tonight, we have two picks:
Buffalo Sabres @ Ottawa Senators: UNDER 5 Goals 2.23
The Buffalo Sabres are currently the only team in the NHL scoring less than two goals per game. The Sabres are scoring 1.58 goals per game. The 2nd worst scoring team is the Florida Panthers, and even they are scoring 2.19 goals per game. In their last 10 games, the Sabres have scored only 1.30 goals per game while allowing fewer goals than usual, with 2.80 goals against per game over their last 10: they allow 2.97 GA/G overall. The Sabres have had only 8 games go over the total this season, and 17 games have stayed under. In their last 10 games Buffalo has had only one game go over the total, in a 4-2 loss against Toronto nearly one month ago. The Sabres have scored two goals or less in 9 of their last 10 games. Robin Lehner is the probable starter for the Senators tonight, and has the 5th best save percentage in the NHL (.933 SV%) and a 2.36 goals against average. In his last outing against the Sabres he allowed 1 goal against on 36 shots for a .972 SV%. Ryan Miller is probable for the Sabres and he is a solid goaltender that is stuck with a brutal team that cannot score. Miller has received the 2nd most shots against in the League (799 shots against) and has made the 2nd most saves (735 saves); he has a 920 SV% and a 2.95 GAA. These two teams met in Buffalo on Tuesday and the game ended in a 2-1 Buffalo shootout victory. The Ottawa Senators are scoring 2.84 goals per game overall, but have lost 3 of their last 4 games, scoring 10 goals in those 4 games. Note that 5 of those 10 goals came in one game against the Flyers (5-4 SO Win), which makes an average of 2.50 goals per game over their last 4 games with the 5-4 victory included. When the Senators play at Home they are scoring 2.63 goals per game. Note that when the Sens are the “favorite” they score 2.27 goals per game. This game should stay UNDER the total and we’ll take it for a great price.
Columbus Blue Jackets @ New York Rangers: BLUE JACKETS 2.45
This is great value on the Blue Jackets tonight. This match is close to even strength and we are getting the Blue Jackets at an exceptional price. The New York Rangers (15-16-1 overall, 5-8-1 Home) are struggling to find a win, they have lost three straight games in a row, all of which were at Home. In that 3 game span the Rangers were outscored 12-5 by their opponents. The last win for the Rangers came against the Buffalo Sabres where they grabbed a 3-1 victory. The Rangers have lost 6 of their last 10 games and 4 of their last 5 at Home. The Blue Jackets (13-5-3 overall, 5-8-2 Away) have the Rangers beat on the offense, scoring 2.48 goals per game. The Rangers are scoring 2.19 goals per game. The Rangers have scored 2.40 goals per game over their last 10 games but have allowed 3.00 goals against per game over that span. When the Rangers are the “favorite” they score only 2.00 goals per game. The Blue Jackets have a slightly better power play unit that scores on 20.2% of their chances. The Rangers have a 19.0 PP% but when the Rangers play at Home their power play converts only 14.6% of the time. The Blue Jackets have a 20.0 PP% on the Road. The Rangers defense is slightly better overall, allowing 2.62 goals against per game (Blue Jackets are 2.74 GA/G overall) but note that the Rangers have allowed 3.00 goals against per game over their last 10 games. The Blue Jackets have allowed only 2.20 goals against per game over their L10 games. This is as close to an even strength match up as you can get, and we will gladly back the Blue Jackets tonight for a great price of 2.45.
